The impact of reliable range estimation on battery electric vehicle feasibility

Dong, Jing; Wu, Xing; Liu, Changzheng; Lin, Zhenhong; Hu, Liang

doi:10.1080/15568318.2019.1639085

Title: The impact of reliable range estimation on battery electric vehicle feasibility

Abstract

Range limitation is a significant obstacle to market acceptance of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Range anxiety is exacerbated when drivers could not reliably predict the remaining battery range or when their journeys were unexpectedly extended. This paper quantifies the impact of reliable range estimation on BEV feasibility using GPS-tracked travel survey data, collected over an 18-month period (from November 2004 to April 2006) in the Seattle metropolitan area. BEV feasibility is quantified as the number of days when travel adaption is needed if a driver replaces a conventional gasoline vehicle (CGV) with a BEV. The distribution of BEV range is estimated based on the real-world fuel efficiency data. A driver is assumed to choose between using a BEV or a substitute gasoline vehicle, based on the cumulative prospect theory (CPT). BEV is considered feasible for a particular driver if he/she needs to use a substitute vehicle on less than 0.5% of the travel days. By varying the values of some CPT parameter, the percentage of BEV feasible vehicles could change from less than 5% to 25%. Additionally, the numerical results show that with a 50% reduction in the standard deviation and 50% increase in the mean of the BEV rangemore »« less

Authors:

Dong, Jing ^[1]; Wu, Xing ^[2]; Liu, Changzheng ^[3];

^[4]; Hu, Liang ^[1]

Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)
Lamar Univ., Beaumont, TX (United States)
Walmart Labs, San Bruno, CA (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Publication Date:: Tue Nov 05 00:00:00 EST 2019

Research Org.:: Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Transportation Office. Vehicle Technologies Office

OSTI Identifier:: 1657906

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: International Journal of Sustainable Transportation

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 14; Journal Issue: 11; Journal ID: ISSN 1556-8318

Publisher:: Taylor & Francis

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS; battery electric vehicles (BEVs); cumulative prospect theory (CPT); daily vehicle miles traveled (DVMT); range anxiety

Citation Formats


                    Dong, Jing, Wu, Xing, Liu, Changzheng, Lin, Zhenhong, and Hu, Liang. The impact of reliable range estimation on battery electric vehicle feasibility.  United States: N. p., 2019. 
Web.  doi:10.1080/15568318.2019.1639085.

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                    Dong, Jing, Wu, Xing, Liu, Changzheng, Lin, Zhenhong, & Hu, Liang. The impact of reliable range estimation on battery electric vehicle feasibility.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1080/15568318.2019.1639085

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                    Dong, Jing, Wu, Xing, Liu, Changzheng, Lin, Zhenhong, and Hu, Liang. Tue .  
"The impact of reliable range estimation on battery electric vehicle feasibility".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1080/15568318.2019.1639085.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1657906.

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@article{osti_1657906,

  title        = {The impact of reliable range estimation on battery electric vehicle feasibility},

  author       = {Dong, Jing and Wu, Xing and Liu, Changzheng and Lin, Zhenhong and Hu, Liang},

  abstractNote = {Range limitation is a significant obstacle to market acceptance of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Range anxiety is exacerbated when drivers could not reliably predict the remaining battery range or when their journeys were unexpectedly extended. This paper quantifies the impact of reliable range estimation on BEV feasibility using GPS-tracked travel survey data, collected over an 18-month period (from November 2004 to April 2006) in the Seattle metropolitan area. BEV feasibility is quantified as the number of days when travel adaption is needed if a driver replaces a conventional gasoline vehicle (CGV) with a BEV. The distribution of BEV range is estimated based on the real-world fuel efficiency data. A driver is assumed to choose between using a BEV or a substitute gasoline vehicle, based on the cumulative prospect theory (CPT). BEV is considered feasible for a particular driver if he/she needs to use a substitute vehicle on less than 0.5% of the travel days. By varying the values of some CPT parameter, the percentage of BEV feasible vehicles could change from less than 5% to 25%. Additionally, the numerical results show that with a 50% reduction in the standard deviation and 50% increase in the mean of the BEV range distribution BEV feasibility increases from less than 5% of the sampled drivers to 30%.},

  doi          = {10.1080/15568318.2019.1639085},

  journal      = {International Journal of Sustainable Transportation},

  number       = 11,

  volume       = 14,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Tue Nov 05 00:00:00 EST 2019},

  month        = {Tue Nov 05 00:00:00 EST 2019}

}

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Similar Records

Title: The impact of reliable range estimation on battery electric vehicle feasibility

Abstract

Citation Formats

Experiencing Range in an Electric Vehicle: Understanding Psychological Barriers: EXPERIENCING RANGE journal, October 2011

Big-data framework for electric vehicle range estimation conference, October 2014

Characterization of urban commuter driving profiles to optimize battery size in light-duty plug-in electric vehicles journal, May 2011

Curvature of the Probability Weighting Function journal, December 1996

Rapid estimation of electric vehicle acceptance using a general description of driving patterns journal, February 2015

A Parameter-Free Elicitation of the Probability Weighting Function in Medical Decision Analysis journal, November 2000

Plug-in-Hybrid Vehicle Use, Energy Consumption, and Greenhouse Emissions: An Analysis of Household Vehicle Placements in Northern California journal, March 2011

Role of workplace charging opportunities on adoption of plug-in electric vehicles – Analysis based on GPS-based longitudinal travel data journal, March 2018

A User Equilibrium Model Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory for Degradable Transport Network conference, April 2011

Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle journal, February 1995

Optimizing and Diversifying Electric Vehicle Driving Range for U.S. Drivers journal, November 2014

Cost analysis of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles using GPS-based longitudinal travel data journal, May 2014

Estimation of Energy Use by Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Validating Gamma Distribution for Representing Random Daily Driving Distance journal, January 2012

User decision-making and technology choices in the U.S. carsharing market journal, October 2016

Uncertainty, loss aversion, and markets for energy efficiency journal, July 2011

Fuel reduction and electricity consumption impact of different charging scenarios for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles journal, August 2011

Electrification of Household Travel by Electric and Hybrid Vehicles conference, February 1982

Intrapersonal variability in daily urban travel behavior: Some additional evidence journal, May 1995

Barriers to widespread adoption of electric vehicles: An analysis of consumer attitudes and perceptions journal, September 2012

Simplified electric vehicle power train models and range estimation conference, September 2011

Electric vehicles: How much range is required for a day’s driving? journal, December 2011

A statistical approach to estimating acceptance of electric vehicles and electrification of personal transportation journal, January 2013

Day-to-Day Travel Variability in the Commute Atlanta, Georgia, Study journal, January 2007

Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty journal, October 1992

Stochastic Modeling of Battery Electric Vehicle Driver Behavior: Impact of Charging Infrastructure Deployment on the Feasibility of Battery Electric Vehicles journal, January 2014

Coping with unreliable transportation when collecting children: Examining parents’ behavior with cumulative prospect theory journal, June 2009

Reference Points in Commuter Departure Time Choice: A Prospect Theoretic Test of Alternative Decision Frames journal, January 2004

Violations of the betweenness axiom and nonlinearity in probability journal, March 1994

The Loss of Loss Aversion: Will It Loom Larger Than Its Gain? journal, April 2018

Lithium-ion battery cell degradation resulting from realistic vehicle and vehicle-to-grid utilization journal, April 2010

Impact of stochastic driving range on the optimal charging infrastructure expansion planning journal, December 2017

Analysis of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles’ utility factors using GPS-based longitudinal travel data journal, August 2015

Battery Electric Vehicle Driving and Charging Behavior Observed Early in The EV Project journal, April 2012

Modelling public-transport users’ behaviour at connection point journal, May 2013

Adaptive route choices in risky traffic networks: A prospect theory approach journal, October 2010

A decision-making rule for modeling travelers’ route choice behavior based on cumulative prospect theory journal, April 2011

Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk journal, March 1979

Development of an enhanced route choice model based on cumulative prospect theory journal, October 2014

An empirical assessment of the feasibility of battery electric vehicles for day-to-day driving journal, August 2014

Travelers' Risk Attitude Classification Method Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory and Experimental Results conference, September 2015

Genetic Algorithm to Estimate Cumulative Prospect Theory Parameters for Selection of High-Occupancy-Vehicle Lane journal, January 2010

Parameter-Free Elicitation of Utility and Probability Weighting Functions journal, November 2000

Predicting the market potential of plug-in electric vehicles using multiday GPS data journal, July 2012

Form Matters: Informing Consumers Effectively journal, January 2013

Prospect theory based estimation of drivers’ risk attitudes in route choice behaviors journal, December 2014

Battery capacity design for electric vehicles considering the diversity of daily vehicles miles traveled journal, November 2016

Evaluation of Risk Perception in Route Choice Experiments: An Application of the Cumulative Prospect Theory conference, September 2015

Mainstream consumers driving plug-in battery-electric and plug-in hybrid electric cars: A qualitative analysis of responses and evaluations journal, January 2012

Analysing the Energy Consumption of the BMW ActiveE Field Trial Vehicles with Application to Distance to Empty Algorithms journal, January 2014

Identification of Parameters for a Prospect Theory Model for Travel Choice Analysis journal, January 2008

Actual Versus Estimated Utility Factor of a Large Set of Privately Owned Chevrolet Volts journal, April 2014

Within-day recharge of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles: Energy impact of public charging infrastructure journal, July 2012

Analyzing the Energy Consumption of the BMW ActiveE Field Trial Vehicles with Application to Distance to Empty Algorithms text, January 2014

Experiencing Range in an Electric Vehicle: Understanding Psychological Barriers: EXPERIENCING RANGE
journal, October 2011

Big-data framework for electric vehicle range estimation
conference, October 2014

Characterization of urban commuter driving profiles to optimize battery size in light-duty plug-in electric vehicles
journal, May 2011

Curvature of the Probability Weighting Function
journal, December 1996

Rapid estimation of electric vehicle acceptance using a general description of driving patterns
journal, February 2015

A Parameter-Free Elicitation of the Probability Weighting Function in Medical Decision Analysis
journal, November 2000

Plug-in-Hybrid Vehicle Use, Energy Consumption, and Greenhouse Emissions: An Analysis of Household Vehicle Placements in Northern California
journal, March 2011

Role of workplace charging opportunities on adoption of plug-in electric vehicles – Analysis based on GPS-based longitudinal travel data
journal, March 2018

A User Equilibrium Model Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory for Degradable Transport Network
conference, April 2011

Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle
journal, February 1995

Optimizing and Diversifying Electric Vehicle Driving Range for U.S. Drivers
journal, November 2014

Cost analysis of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles using GPS-based longitudinal travel data
journal, May 2014

Estimation of Energy Use by Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Validating Gamma Distribution for Representing Random Daily Driving Distance
journal, January 2012

User decision-making and technology choices in the U.S. carsharing market
journal, October 2016

Uncertainty, loss aversion, and markets for energy efficiency
journal, July 2011

Fuel reduction and electricity consumption impact of different charging scenarios for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
journal, August 2011

Electrification of Household Travel by Electric and Hybrid Vehicles
conference, February 1982

Intrapersonal variability in daily urban travel behavior: Some additional evidence
journal, May 1995

Barriers to widespread adoption of electric vehicles: An analysis of consumer attitudes and perceptions
journal, September 2012

Simplified electric vehicle power train models and range estimation
conference, September 2011

Electric vehicles: How much range is required for a day’s driving?
journal, December 2011

A statistical approach to estimating acceptance of electric vehicles and electrification of personal transportation
journal, January 2013

Day-to-Day Travel Variability in the Commute Atlanta, Georgia, Study
journal, January 2007

Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty
journal, October 1992

Stochastic Modeling of Battery Electric Vehicle Driver Behavior: Impact of Charging Infrastructure Deployment on the Feasibility of Battery Electric Vehicles
journal, January 2014

Coping with unreliable transportation when collecting children: Examining parents’ behavior with cumulative prospect theory
journal, June 2009

Reference Points in Commuter Departure Time Choice: A Prospect Theoretic Test of Alternative Decision Frames
journal, January 2004

Violations of the betweenness axiom and nonlinearity in probability
journal, March 1994

The Loss of Loss Aversion: Will It Loom Larger Than Its Gain?
journal, April 2018

Lithium-ion battery cell degradation resulting from realistic vehicle and vehicle-to-grid utilization
journal, April 2010

Impact of stochastic driving range on the optimal charging infrastructure expansion planning
journal, December 2017

Analysis of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles’ utility factors using GPS-based longitudinal travel data
journal, August 2015

Battery Electric Vehicle Driving and Charging Behavior Observed Early in The EV Project
journal, April 2012

Modelling public-transport users’ behaviour at connection point
journal, May 2013

Adaptive route choices in risky traffic networks: A prospect theory approach
journal, October 2010

A decision-making rule for modeling travelers’ route choice behavior based on cumulative prospect theory
journal, April 2011

Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk
journal, March 1979

Development of an enhanced route choice model based on cumulative prospect theory
journal, October 2014

An empirical assessment of the feasibility of battery electric vehicles for day-to-day driving
journal, August 2014

Travelers' Risk Attitude Classification Method Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory and Experimental Results
conference, September 2015

Genetic Algorithm to Estimate Cumulative Prospect Theory Parameters for Selection of High-Occupancy-Vehicle Lane
journal, January 2010

Parameter-Free Elicitation of Utility and Probability Weighting Functions
journal, November 2000

Predicting the market potential of plug-in electric vehicles using multiday GPS data
journal, July 2012

Form Matters: Informing Consumers Effectively
journal, January 2013

Prospect theory based estimation of drivers’ risk attitudes in route choice behaviors
journal, December 2014

Battery capacity design for electric vehicles considering the diversity of daily vehicles miles traveled
journal, November 2016

Evaluation of Risk Perception in Route Choice Experiments: An Application of the Cumulative Prospect Theory
conference, September 2015

Mainstream consumers driving plug-in battery-electric and plug-in hybrid electric cars: A qualitative analysis of responses and evaluations
journal, January 2012

Analysing the Energy Consumption of the BMW ActiveE Field Trial Vehicles with Application to Distance to Empty Algorithms
journal, January 2014

Identification of Parameters for a Prospect Theory Model for Travel Choice Analysis
journal, January 2008

Actual Versus Estimated Utility Factor of a Large Set of Privately Owned Chevrolet Volts
journal, April 2014

Within-day recharge of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles: Energy impact of public charging infrastructure
journal, July 2012

Analyzing the Energy Consumption of the BMW ActiveE Field Trial Vehicles with Application to Distance to Empty Algorithms
text, January 2014