21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory
Abstract
Recent observed shifts in Arctic tundra shrub cover have uncertain impacts on 21st century net ecosystem carbon exchanges. Here we applied a well-tested ecosystem model, ecosys, to examine the effects of North America Arctic tundra plant dynamics on ecosystem carbon balances from 1980-2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Tundra productivity was modeled to increase from enhanced carbon fixation and N mineralization under recent and future climates. Between 1982 and 2100 and averaged across the region, predicted increases in relative dominance of woody versus non-woody plants increased ecosystem annual net primary productivity by 244 g C m-2 that offset concurrent increases in annual heterotrophic respiration (139 g C m-2), resulting in an increasing net carbon sink over the 21st century. However, smaller increases in seasonal carbon uptake during winter (1 g C m-2) and autumn (22 g C m-2) and greater increases in ecosystem respiration (winter (23 g C m-2) and autumn (47 g C m-2)) by 2100 versus 1982 resulted in larger carbon losses during these seasons that completely offset the gains in spring (13 g C m-2) and 25% of the gains in summer (140 g C m-2). Modeled soil temperatures were predicted to increase more slowly than air temperaturesmore »
- Authors:
-
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1477293
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 13; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
- Publisher:
- IOP Publishing
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES; tundra woodiness; Arctic carbon cycle; changes in tundra plants; nutrient cycling; 21st century carbon cycle; vegetation change
Citation Formats
Mekonnen, Zelalem A., Riley, William J., and Grant, Robert F. 21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabf28.
Mekonnen, Zelalem A., Riley, William J., & Grant, Robert F. 21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory. United States. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf28
Mekonnen, Zelalem A., Riley, William J., and Grant, Robert F. Mon .
"21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory". United States. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf28. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1477293.
@article{osti_1477293,
title = {21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory},
author = {Mekonnen, Zelalem A. and Riley, William J. and Grant, Robert F.},
abstractNote = {Recent observed shifts in Arctic tundra shrub cover have uncertain impacts on 21st century net ecosystem carbon exchanges. Here we applied a well-tested ecosystem model, ecosys, to examine the effects of North America Arctic tundra plant dynamics on ecosystem carbon balances from 1980-2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Tundra productivity was modeled to increase from enhanced carbon fixation and N mineralization under recent and future climates. Between 1982 and 2100 and averaged across the region, predicted increases in relative dominance of woody versus non-woody plants increased ecosystem annual net primary productivity by 244 g C m-2 that offset concurrent increases in annual heterotrophic respiration (139 g C m-2), resulting in an increasing net carbon sink over the 21st century. However, smaller increases in seasonal carbon uptake during winter (1 g C m-2) and autumn (22 g C m-2) and greater increases in ecosystem respiration (winter (23 g C m-2) and autumn (47 g C m-2)) by 2100 versus 1982 resulted in larger carbon losses during these seasons that completely offset the gains in spring (13 g C m-2) and 25% of the gains in summer (140 g C m-2). Modeled soil temperatures were predicted to increase more slowly than air temperatures (~0.6 °C for every 1 °C increase in air temperature over the 21st century). This slower soil versus air warming, and thus greater increases in CO2 fixation versus soil respiration rates, also contributed to the tundra remaining a carbon sink through 2100. However, these higher gains versus losses of carbon may be a transient response and not sustainable under further soil warming beyond 2100. Our modeling analysis allows us to extend beyond results from short-term warming experiments, which cannot characterize effects associated with decadal-scale changes in plant communities.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aabf28},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 5,
volume = 13,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon May 14 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Mon May 14 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
Web of Science
Works referenced in this record:
Responses of High Arctic wet sedge tundra to climate warming since 1980: HIGH ARCTIC WARMING AND WET SEDGE TUNDRA
journal, December 2010
- Hill, Geoff B.; Henry, Greg H. R.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 17, Issue 1
The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300
journal, August 2011
- Meinshausen, Malte; Smith, S. J.; Calvin, K.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
The evidence for shrub expansion in Northern Alaska and the Pan-Arctic
journal, April 2006
- Tape, Ken; Sturm, Matthew; Racine, Charles
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 12, Issue 4
A High Arctic soil ecosystem resists long-term environmental manipulations: ARCTIC SOIL RESISTS ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
journal, April 2011
- Lamb, Eric G.; Han, Sukkyun; Lanoil, Brian D.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 17, Issue 10
Interannual variation in net ecosystem productivity of Canadian forests as affected by regional weather patterns – A Fluxnet-Canada synthesis
journal, November 2009
- Grant, R. F.; Barr, A. G.; Black, T. A.
- Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 149, Issue 11
Spatial variation in landscape-level CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from arctic coastal tundra: influence from vegetation, wetness, and the thaw lake cycle
journal, July 2013
- Sturtevant, Cove S.; Oechel, Walter C.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 19, Issue 9
Responses of Arctic Tundra to Experimental and Observed Changes in Climate
journal, April 1995
- Chapin, F. Stuart; Shaver, Gaius R.; Giblin, Anne E.
- Ecology, Vol. 76, Issue 3
Decomposition of old organic matter as a result of deeper active layers in a snow depth manipulation experiment
journal, January 2010
- Nowinski, Nicole S.; Taneva, Lina; Trumbore, Susan E.
- Oecologia, Vol. 163, Issue 3
Nitrogen mineralization drives the response of forest productivity to soil warming: Modelling in ecosys vs. measurements from the Harvard soil heating experiment
journal, September 2014
- Grant, R. F.
- Ecological Modelling, Vol. 288
Interactions among shrub cover and the soil microclimate may determine future Arctic carbon budgets
journal, September 2012
- Cahoon, Sean M. P.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; Shaver, Gaius R.
- Ecology Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 12
Global change and arctic ecosystems: is lichen decline a function of increases in vascular plant biomass?
journal, December 2001
- Cornelissen, J. H. C.; Callaghan, T. V.; Alatalo, J. M.
- Journal of Ecology, Vol. 89, Issue 6
Permafrost Degradation and Ecological Changes Associated with a WarmingClimate in Central Alaska
journal, March 2001
- Jorgenson, M. Torre; Racine, Charles H.; Walters, James C.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 48, Issue 4, p. 551-579
Net carbon dioxide losses of northern ecosystems in response to autumn warming
journal, January 2008
- Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre
- Nature, Vol. 451, Issue 7174
From The Cover: Plant community responses to experimental warming across the tundra biome
journal, January 2006
- Walker, M. D.; Wahren, C. H.; Hollister, R. D.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 103, Issue 5
The greening and browning of Alaska based on 1982–2003 satellite data
journal, July 2008
- Verbyla, David
- Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 17, Issue 4
Winter precipitation and snow accumulation drive the methane sink or source strength of Arctic tussock tundra
journal, May 2016
- Blanc-Betes, Elena; Welker, Jeffrey M.; Sturchio, Neil C.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 22, Issue 8
Nitrogen availability increases in a tundra ecosystem during five years of experimental permafrost thaw
journal, February 2016
- Salmon, Verity G.; Soucy, Patrick; Mauritz, Marguerite
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 22, Issue 5
Higher northern latitude normalized difference vegetation index and growing season trends from 1982 to 1999
journal, November 2001
- Tucker, C. J.; Slayback, D. A.; Pinzon, J. E.
- International Journal of Biometeorology, Vol. 45, Issue 4
Net Biome Productivity of Irrigated and Rainfed Maize–Soybean Rotations: Modeling vs. Measurements
journal, January 2007
- Grant, R. F.; Arkebauer, T. J.; Dobermann, A.
- Agronomy Journal, Vol. 99, Issue 6
CO2 exchange in three Canadian High Arctic ecosystems: response to long-term experimental warming
journal, December 2004
- Welker, Jeffrey M.; Fahnestock, Jace T.; Henry, Greg H. R.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 10, Issue 12
Long-term warming restructures Arctic tundra without changing net soil carbon storage
journal, May 2013
- Sistla, Seeta A.; Moore, John C.; Simpson, Rodney T.
- Nature, Vol. 497, Issue 7451
Net ecosystem productivity of boreal aspen forests under drought and climate change: Mathematical modelling with Ecosys
journal, November 2006
- Grant, R. F.; Black, T. A.; Gaumont-Guay, D.
- Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 140, Issue 1-4
Tundra plants and climate change: the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX)
journal, December 1997
- Henry, G. H. R.; Molau, U.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 3, Issue S1
Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991
journal, April 1997
- Myneni, R. B.; Keeling, C. D.; Tucker, C. J.
- Nature, Vol. 386, Issue 6626
Potential carbon release from permafrost soils of Northeastern Siberia
journal, December 2006
- Dutta, Koushik; Schuur, E. A. G.; Neff, J. C.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 12, Issue 12
Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America
journal, June 2016
- Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave
- PLOS ONE, Vol. 11, Issue 6
The response of Alaskan arctic tundra to experimental warming: differences between short- and long-term responses
journal, April 2005
- Hollister, Robert D.; Webber, Patrick J.; Tweedie, Craig E.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 11, Issue 4
A meta-analysis of the response of soil respiration, net nitrogen mineralization, and aboveground plant growth to experimental ecosystem warming
journal, February 2001
- Rustad, L.; Campbell, J.; Marion, G.
- Oecologia, Vol. 126, Issue 4
Meta-analysis of high-latitude nitrogen-addition and warming studies implies ecological mechanisms overlooked by land models
journal, January 2014
- Bouskill, N. J.; Riley, W. J.; Tang, J. Y.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, Issue 23
Simulation of competition between barley and wild oats under different managements and climates
journal, February 1994
- Grant, Robert
- Ecological Modelling, Vol. 71, Issue 4
Responses of Tundra Plants to Experimental Warming: Meta-Analysis of the International Tundra Experiment
journal, November 1999
- Arft, A. M.; Walker, M. D.; Gurevitch, J.
- Ecological Monographs, Vol. 69, Issue 4
Long-term experimental warming and nutrient additions increase productivity in tall deciduous shrub tundra
journal, June 2014
- DeMarco, Jennie; Mack, Michelle C.; Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia
- Ecosphere, Vol. 5, Issue 6
Coupled long-term summer warming and deeper snow alters species composition and stimulates gross primary productivity in tussock tundra
journal, January 2016
- Leffler, A. Joshua; Klein, Eric S.; Oberbauer, Steven F.
- Oecologia, Vol. 181, Issue 1
Recent change of Arctic tundra ecosystems from a net carbon dioxide sink to a source
journal, February 1993
- Oechel, Walter C.; Hastings, Steven J.; Vourlrtis, George
- Nature, Vol. 361, Issue 6412
Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition and feedbacks to climate change
journal, March 2006
- Davidson, Eric A.; Janssens, Ivan A.
- Nature, Vol. 440, Issue 7081
Enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake in the Northern High Latitudes in the 21st century from the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project model projections
journal, February 2010
- Qian, Haifeng; Joseph, Renu; Zeng, Ning
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 16, Issue 2
Climate change in the Arctic: using plant functional types in a meta-analysis of field experiments
journal, February 2002
- Dormann, C. F.; Woodin, S. J.
- Functional Ecology, Vol. 16, Issue 1
Recent expansion of erect shrubs in the Low Arctic: evidence from Eastern Nunavik
journal, July 2012
- Tremblay, Benoît; Lévesque, Esther; Boudreau, Stéphane
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 7, Issue 3
Modelling carbon balances of coastal arctic tundra under changing climate
journal, January 2003
- Grant, Robert F.; Oechel, Walter C.; Ping, Chien-Lu
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Ecological controls on net ecosystem productivity of a seasonally dry annual grassland under current and future climates: Modelling with ecosys
journal, January 2012
- Grant, R. F.; Baldocchi, D. D.; Ma, S.
- Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 152
Simulation of Growth and Morphological Development of Maize Under Contrasting Water Regimes
journal, April 1989
- Grant, R. F.; Frederick, J. R.; Hesketh, J. D.
- Canadian Journal of Plant Science, Vol. 69, Issue 2
TUNDRA CO 2 FLUXES IN RESPONSE TO EXPERIMENTAL WARMING ACROSS LATITUDINAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENTS
journal, May 2007
- Oberbauer, Steven F.; Tweedie, Craig E.; Welker, Jeff M.
- Ecological Monographs, Vol. 77, Issue 2
Global negative vegetation feedback to climate warming responses of leaf litter decomposition rates in cold biomes
journal, July 2007
- Cornelissen, Johannes H. C.; van Bodegom, Peter M.; Aerts, Rien
- Ecology Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 7
Carbon loss from an unprecedented Arctic tundra wildfire
journal, July 2011
- Mack, Michelle C.; Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia; Hollingsworth, Teresa N.
- Nature, Vol. 475, Issue 7357
Intercomparison of techniques to model water stress effects on CO2 and energy exchange in temperate and boreal deciduous forests
journal, July 2006
- Grant, R. F.; Zhang, Y.; Yuan, F.
- Ecological Modelling, Vol. 196, Issue 3-4
A new data set for estimating organic carbon storage to 3 m depth in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region
journal, January 2013
- Hugelius, G.; Bockheim, J. G.; Camill, P.
- Earth System Science Data, Vol. 5, Issue 2
Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change
journal, November 2009
- McGuire, A. David; Anderson, Leif G.; Christensen, Torben R.
- Ecological Monographs, Vol. 79, Issue 4
Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time: Warming effects on tundra vegetation
journal, December 2011
- Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Henry, Gregory H. R.; Hollister, Robert D.
- Ecology Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 2
Improved temperature response functions for models of Rubisco-limited photosynthesis
journal, February 2001
- Bernacchi, C. J.; Singsaas, E. L.; Pimentel, C.
- Plant, Cell and Environment, Vol. 24, Issue 2
Role of Land-Surface Changes in Arctic Summer Warming
journal, October 2005
- Chapin, F. S.
- Science, Vol. 310, Issue 5748
Satellite-based evidence for shrub and graminoid tundra expansion in northern Quebec from 1986 to 2010
journal, May 2012
- McManus, kelly M.; Morton, Douglas C.; Masek, Jeffrey G.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 18, Issue 7
On the influence of shrub height and expansion on northern high latitude climate
journal, January 2012
- Bonfils, C. J. W.; Phillips, T. J.; Lawrence, D. M.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 7, Issue 1
Changes in high arctic tundra plant reproduction in response to long-term experimental warming: WARMING EFFECTS ON TUNDRA PLANT REPRODUCTION
journal, September 2010
- Klady, Rebecca A.; Henry, Gregory H. R.; Lemay, Valerie
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 17, Issue 4
Climatic and resource quality controls on soil respiration across a forest–tundra ecotone in Swedish Lapland
journal, November 2002
- Sjögersten, Sofie; Wookey, Philip A.
- Soil Biology and Biochemistry, Vol. 34, Issue 11
The Unified North American Soil Map and its implication on the soil organic carbon stock in North America
journal, January 2013
- Liu, S.; Wei, Y.; Post, W. M.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 10, Issue 5
Increased plant biomass in a High Arctic heath community from 1981 to 2008
journal, October 2009
- Hudson, J. M. G.; Henry, G. H. R.
- Ecology, Vol. 90, Issue 10
Leaf structure and defence control litter decomposition rate across species and life forms in regional floras on two continents
journal, July 1999
- Cornelissen, Johannes H. C.; Perez-Harguindeguy, Natalia; Diaz, Sandra
- New Phytologist, Vol. 143, Issue 1
In vivo temperature response functions of parameters required to model RuBP-limited photosynthesis
journal, September 2003
- Bernacchi, C. J.; Pimentel, C.; Long, S. P.
- Plant, Cell and Environment, Vol. 26, Issue 9
Vegetation responses in Alaskan arctic tundra after 8 years of a summer warming and winter snow manipulation experiment
journal, April 2005
- Wahren, C. -H. A.; Walker, M. D.; Bret-Harte, M. S.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 11, Issue 4
Interactive effects of drought, elevated CO2 and warming on photosynthetic capacity and photosystem performance in temperate heath plants
journal, September 2011
- Albert, Kristian Rost; Mikkelsen, Teis N.; Michelsen, Anders
- Journal of Plant Physiology, Vol. 168, Issue 13
Ecological controls on N 2 O emission in surface litter and near-surface soil of a managed grassland: modelling and measurements
journal, January 2016
- Grant, Robert F.; Neftel, Albrecht; Calanca, Pierluigi
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 13, Issue 12
Shrub canopies influence soil temperatures but not nutrient dynamics: An experimental test of tundra snow-shrub interactions
journal, September 2013
- Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Hik, David S.
- Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 3, Issue 11
Relationship between temperature and the seasonal course of photosynthesis in Scots pine at northern timberline and in southern boreal zone
journal, July 2007
- Kolari, Pasi; Lappalainen, Hanna K.; Hänninen, Heikki
- Tellus B, Vol. 59, Issue 3
Increased plant productivity in Alaskan tundra as a result of experimental warming of soil and permafrost: Increased plant productivity in Alaskan tundra
journal, November 2011
- Natali, Susan M.; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Rubin, Rachel L.
- Journal of Ecology, Vol. 100, Issue 2
Permafrost carbon−climate feedback is sensitive to deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil nitrogen dynamics
journal, March 2015
- Koven, Charles D.; Lawrence, David M.; Riley, William J.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Improved temperature response functions for models of Rubisco-limited photosynthesis
journal, February 2001
- Bernacchi, C. J.; Singsaas, E. L.; Pimentel, C.
- Plant, Cell and Environment, Vol. 24, Issue 2
Developmental and biophysical determinants of grass leaf size worldwide
journal, March 2021
- Baird, Alec S.; Taylor, Samuel H.; Pasquet-Kok, Jessica
- Nature, Vol. 592, Issue 7853
Relationship between temperature and the seasonal course of photosynthesis in Scots pine at northern timberline and in southern boreal zone
journal, January 2007
- Kolari, Pasi; Lappalainen, Hanna K.; HäNninen, Heikki
- Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, Vol. 59, Issue 3
Works referencing / citing this record:
Greening of the land surface in the world’s cold regions consistent with recent warming
journal, August 2018
- Keenan, T. F.; Riley, W. J.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 9
Negative feedback processes following drainage slow down permafrost degradation
journal, July 2019
- Göckede, Mathias; Kwon, Min Jung; Kittler, Fanny
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 25, Issue 10
Negative feedback processes following drainage slow down permafrost degradation
journal, July 2019
- Göckede, Mathias; Kwon, Min Jung; Kittler, Fanny
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 25, Issue 10