The cost of direct air capture and storage can be reduced via strategic deployment but is unlikely to fall below stated cost targets

Young, John; McQueen, Noah; Charalambous, Charithea; Foteinis, Spyros; Hawrot, Olivia; Ojeda, Manuel; Pilorgé, Hélène; Andresen, John; Psarras, Peter; Renforth, Phil; Garcia, Susana; van der Spek, Mijndert

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2023.06.004

Title: The cost of direct air capture and storage can be reduced via strategic deployment but is unlikely to fall below stated cost targets

Journal Article · Thu Jul 13 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · One Earth

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.06.004 · OSTI ID:2424630

^[1]; McQueen, Noah ^[2]; Charalambous, Charithea ^[1]; Foteinis, Spyros ^[1]; Hawrot, Olivia ^[1]; Ojeda, Manuel ^[1]; Pilorgé, Hélène ^[2]; Andresen, John ^[1]; Psarras, Peter ^[2]; Renforth, Phil ^[1]; Garcia, Susana ^[1]; van der Spek, Mijndert ^[1]

Heriot-Watt Univ., Edinburgh (United Kingdom)
Univ. of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA (United States)

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary to minimize the impact of climate change by tackling hard-toabate sectors and historical emissions. Direct air capture and storage (DACS) is an important CDR technology, but it remains unclear when and how DACS can be economically viable. Here, we use a bottom-up engineering-economic model together with top-down technological learning projections to calculate plant-level cost trajectories for four DACS technologies. Our analysis demonstrates that the costs of these technologies can plateau by 2050 at around $$\$$$$100-600 t-CO₂^-1 mainly via capital cost reduction through aggressive deployment, but still exceed the optimistic targets defined by countries such as the US (i.e., $$\$$$$100 t-CO₂^-1). A further analysis of existing policy mechanisms indicates that strong, project-catered policy support will be required to create market opportunities, accelerate DACS scale-up and lower the costs further. Our work suggests that strategic DACS deployment and operation must be coupled with strong policies to minimise the cost of DACS and maximise the opportunity to make a planet-scale climate impact.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 2424630

Journal Information:: One Earth, Journal Name: One Earth Journal Issue: 7 Vol. 6; ISSN 2590-3322

Publisher:: Cell PressCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (62)

Electrochemically Mediated Direct CO ₂ Capture by a Stackable Bipolar Cell Hemmatifar, Ali; Kang, Jin Soo; Ozbek, Nil ChemSusChem, Vol. 15, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/cssc.202102533	journal	February 2022
A two-step carbon pricing scheme enabling a net-zero and net-negative CO$$_2$$-emissions world Becattini, Viola; Gabrielli, Paolo; Frattini, Linda Climatic Change, Vol. 171, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03340-z	journal	March 2022
The ecoinvent database version 3 (part I): overview and methodology Wernet, Gregor; Bauer, Christian; Steubing, Bernhard The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, Vol. 21, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11367-016-1087-8	journal	April 2016
Learning rates for energy technologies McDonald, Alan; Schrattenholzer, Leo Energy Policy, Vol. 29, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4215(00)00122-1	journal	March 2001
Use of experience curves to estimate the future cost of power plants with CO2 capture Rubin, Edward S.; Yeh, Sonia; Antes, Matt International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 1, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/S1750-5836(07)00016-3	journal	April 2007
Challenges and uncertainties of ex ante techno-economic analysis of low TRL CO2 capture technology: Lessons from a case study of an NGCC with exhaust gas recycle and electric swing adsorption van der Spek, Mijndert; Ramirez, Andrea; Faaij, André Applied Energy, Vol. 208 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.09.058	journal	December 2017
The impact of climate on solvent-based direct air capture systems An, Keju; Farooqui, Azharuddin; McCoy, Sean T. Applied Energy, Vol. 325 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119895	journal	November 2022
Industrial waste heat: Estimation of the technically available resource in the EU per industrial sector, temperature level and country Papapetrou, Michael; Kosmadakis, George; Cipollina, Andrea Applied Thermal Engineering, Vol. 138 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2018.04.043	journal	June 2018
Process-informed adsorbent design guidelines for direct air capture Young, John; Mcilwaine, Fergus; Smit, Berend Chemical Engineering Journal, Vol. 456 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cej.2022.141035	journal	January 2023
Towards a CO2 infrastructure in North-Western Europe: Legalities, costs and organizational aspects Mikunda, Tom; van Deurzen, Jeroen; Seebregts, Ad Energy Procedia, Vol. 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2011.02.134	journal	January 2011
Cost development of future technologies for power generation—A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments Neij, Lena Energy Policy, Vol. 36, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.02.029	journal	June 2008
A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies Rubin, Edward S.; Azevedo, Inês M. L.; Jaramillo, Paulina Energy Policy, Vol. 86 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.06.011	journal	November 2015
Low-carbon lock-in? Exploring transformative innovation policy and offshore wind energy pathways in the Netherlands van der Loos, H. Z. Adriaan; Negro, Simona O.; Hekkert, Marko P. Energy Research & Social Science, Vol. 69 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101640	journal	November 2020
A proposed methodology for CO2 capture and storage cost estimates Rubin, Edward S.; Short, Christopher; Booras, George International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 17 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2013.06.004	journal	September 2013
Performance of Coriolis flowmeters in CO2 pipelines with pre-combustion, post-combustion and oxyfuel gas mixtures in carbon capture and storage Nazeri, Mahmoud; Maroto-Valer, M. Mercedes; Jukes, Edward International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 54 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.09.013	journal	November 2016
Unravelling uncertainty and variability in early stage techno-economic assessments of carbon capture technologies van der Spek, Mijndert; Sanchez Fernandez, Eva; Eldrup, Nils Henrik International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 56 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.11.021	journal	January 2017
Life cycle carbon efficiency of Direct Air Capture systems with strong hydroxide sorbents de Jonge, Melinda M. J.; Daemen, Juul; Loriaux, Jessica M. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 80 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2018.11.011	journal	January 2019
Improving cost estimates for advanced low-carbon power plants Rubin, Edward S. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 88 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.05.019	journal	September 2019
Uncertainty analysis in the techno-economic assessment of CO2 capture and storage technologies. Critical review and guidelines for use van der Spek, Mijndert; Fout, Timothy; Garcia, Monica International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 100 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2020.103113	journal	September 2020
Towards improved cost evaluation of Carbon Capture and Storage from industry Roussanaly, Simon; Berghout, Niels; Fout, Tim International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 106 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2021.103263	journal	March 2021
The cost of CO2 transport and storage in global integrated assessment modeling Smith, Erin; Morris, Jennifer; Kheshgi, Haroon International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 109 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2021.103367	journal	July 2021
Techno-economic assessment of CO2 direct air capture plants Fasihi, Mahdi; Efimova, Olga; Breyer, Christian Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 224 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.03.086	journal	July 2019
Acorn: Developing full-chain industrial carbon capture and storage in a resource- and infrastructure-rich hydrocarbon province Alcalde, Juan; Heinemann, Niklas; Mabon, Leslie Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 233 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.06.087	journal	October 2019
The quantification of methane emissions and assessment of emissions data for the largest natural gas supply chains Cooper, Jasmin; Balcombe, Paul; Hawkes, Adam Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 320 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128856	journal	October 2021
A Process for Capturing CO2 from the Atmosphere Keith, David W.; Holmes, Geoffrey; St. Angelo, David Joule, Vol. 2, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2018.05.006	journal	August 2018
Accelerating Low-Carbon Innovation Malhotra, Abhishek; Schmidt, Tobias S. Joule, Vol. 4, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2020.09.004	journal	November 2020
A comparative energy and costs assessment and optimization for direct air capture technologies Sabatino, Francesco; Grimm, Alexa; Gallucci, Fausto Joule, Vol. 5, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.05.023	journal	August 2021
Geospatial analysis of regional climate impacts to accelerate cost-efficient direct air capture deployment Sendi, Marwan; Bui, Mai; Mac Dowell, Niall One Earth, Vol. 5, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.09.003	journal	October 2022
Get set to bid for the next offshore wind projects in The Netherlands de Bruijne, Ruud; van Erp, Frank; Leguijt, Tina Renewable Energy Focus, Vol. 17, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ref.2015.11.012	journal	January 2016
The experience curve theory and its application in the field of electricity generation technologies – A literature review Samadi, Sascha Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 82 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.08.077	journal	February 2018
A review on learning effects in prospective technology assessment Thomassen, Gwenny; Van Passel, Steven; Dewulf, Jo Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 130 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.109937	journal	September 2020
Large-scale heat pumps: Uptake and performance modelling of market-available devices Jesper, Mateo; Schlosser, Florian; Pag, Felix Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 137 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110646	journal	March 2021
Life cycle assessment of the carbon intensity of deep geothermal heat systems: A case study from Scotland McCay, Alistair T.; Feliks, Michael E. J.; Roberts, Jennifer J. Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 685 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.311	journal	October 2019
Learning pathways for energy supply technologies: Bridging between innovation studies and learning rates Winskel, Mark; Markusson, Nils; Jeffrey, Henry Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 81 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.015	journal	January 2014
Cost Analysis of Direct Air Capture and Sequestration Coupled to Low-Carbon Thermal Energy in the United States McQueen, Noah; Psarras, Peter; Pilorgé, Hélène Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 54, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c00476	journal	May 2020
Buying down the Cost of Direct Air Capture Lackner, Klaus S.; Azarabadi, Habib Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research, Vol. 60, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.iecr.0c04839	journal	May 2021
Optimal Design and Operation of Solid Sorbent Direct Air Capture Processes at Varying Ambient Conditions Wiegner, Jan F.; Grimm, Alexa; Weimann, Lukas Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research, Vol. 61, Issue 34 https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.iecr.2c00681	journal	August 2022
Modeling, Optimization, and Techno-Economic Analysis of Bipolar Membrane Electrodialysis for Direct Air Capture Processes Sabatino, Francesco; Gazzani, Matteo; Gallucci, Fausto Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research, Vol. 61, Issue 34 https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.iecr.2c00889	journal	August 2022
Evaluation of a Direct Air Capture Process Combining Wet Scrubbing and Bipolar Membrane Electrodialysis Sabatino, Francesco; Mehta, Mayank; Grimm, Alexa Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research, Vol. 59, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.iecr.9b05641	journal	January 2020
The Mechanism of Carbon Dioxide Adsorption in an Alkylamine-Functionalized Metal–Organic Framework Planas, Nora; Dzubak, Allison L.; Poloni, Roberta Journal of the American Chemical Society, Vol. 135, Issue 20, p. 7402-7405 https://doi.org/10.1021/ja4004766	journal	April 2013
Energy storage deployment and innovation for the clean energy transition Kittner, Noah; Lill, Felix; Kammen, Daniel M. Nature Energy, Vol. 2, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2017.125	journal	July 2017
An inter-model assessment of the role of direct air capture in deep mitigation pathways Realmonte, Giulia; Drouet, Laurent; Gambhir, Ajay Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10842-5	journal	July 2019
Ambient weathering of magnesium oxide for CO2 removal from air McQueen, Noah; Kelemen, Peter; Dipple, Greg Nature Communications, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16510-3	journal	July 2020
Unrealistic energy and materials requirement for direct air capture in deep mitigation pathways Chatterjee, Sudipta; Huang, Kuo-Wei Nature Communications, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17203-7	journal	July 2020
Emergency deployment of direct air capture as a response to the climate crisis Hanna, Ryan; Abdulla, Ahmed; Xu, Yangyang Nature Communications, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20437-0	journal	January 2021
Country-level social cost of carbon Ricke, Katharine; Drouet, Laurent; Caldeira, Ken Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0282-y	journal	September 2018
Food–energy–water implications of negative emissions technologies in a +1.5 °C future Fuhrman, Jay; McJeon, Haewon; Patel, Pralit Nature Climate Change, Vol. 10, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0876-z	journal	August 2020
Life-cycle assessment of an industrial direct air capture process based on temperature–vacuum swing adsorption Deutz, Sarah; Bardow, André Nature Energy, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-00771-9	journal	February 2021
Faradaic electro-swing reactive adsorption for CO ₂ capture Voskian, Sahag; Hatton, T. Alan Energy & Environmental Science, Vol. 12, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1039/C9EE02412C	journal	January 2019
Life cycle assessment of carbon dioxide removal technologies: a critical review Terlouw, Tom; Bauer, Christian; Rosa, Lorenzo Energy & Environmental Science, Vol. 14, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1039/D0EE03757E	journal	January 2021
The impact of binary water–CO₂ isotherm models on the optimal performance of sorbent-based direct air capture processes Young, John; García-Díez, Enrique; Garcia, Susana Energy & Environmental Science, Vol. 14, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1039/D1EE01272J	journal	January 2021
Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects Fuss, Sabine; Lamb, William F.; Callaghan, Max W. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9f	journal	May 2018
The role of direct air capture and negative emissions technologies in the shared socioeconomic pathways towards +1.5 °C and +2 °C futures Fuhrman, Jay; Clarens, Andres; Calvin, Katherine Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 16, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2db0	journal	October 2021
Climate policy for a net-zero future: ten recommendations for Direct Air Capture Sovacool, Benjamin K.; Baum, Chad M.; Low, Sean Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 17, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac77a4	journal	June 2022
A review of direct air capture (DAC): scaling up commercial technologies and innovating for the future McQueen, Noah; Gomes, Katherine Vaz; McCormick, Colin Progress in Energy, Vol. 3, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1088/2516-1083/abf1ce	journal	April 2021
Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Measures of Uncertainty in Model‐Based Environmental Assessment: The NUSAP System Van Der Sluijs, Jeroen P.; Craye, Matthieu; Funtowicz, Silvio Risk Analysis, Vol. 25, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00604.x	journal	April 2005
NUSAP Method for Evaluating the Data Quality in a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model forSalmonellain the Pork Production Chain Boone, Ides; Van der Stede, Yves; Bollaerts, Kaatje Risk Analysis, Vol. 29, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01181.x	journal	March 2009
Public–Private Partnerships: An International Performance Review Hodge, Graeme A.; Greve, Carsten Public Administration Review, Vol. 67, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6210.2007.00736.x	journal	May 2007
Designing Advance Market Commitments for New Vaccines Kremer, Michael; Levin, Jonathan; Snyder, Christopher M. Management Science, Vol. 68, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4163	journal	July 2022
Natural Gas vs. Electricity for Solvent-Based Direct Air Capture McQueen, Noah; Desmond, Michael J.; Socolow, Robert H. Frontiers in Climate, Vol. 2 https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2020.618644	journal	January 2021
Future Prospects of Direct Air Capture Technologies: Insights From an Expert Elicitation Survey Shayegh, Soheil; Bosetti, Valentina; Tavoni, Massimo Frontiers in Climate, Vol. 3 https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.630893	journal	May 2021
Environmental Impacts of Solar-Photovoltaic and Solar-Thermal Systems with Life-Cycle Assessment Mahmud, M. A. Parvez; Huda, Nazmul; Farjana, Shahjadi Hisan Energies, Vol. 11, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.3390/en11092346	journal	September 2018

Similar Records

Strategic Siting of Direct Air Capture Facilities in the United States

Journal Article · Tue Jul 30 00:00:00 EDT 2024 · Energies · OSTI ID:2479742

Boerst, Jason; Pena Cabra, Ivonne; Sharma, Smriti; +2 more

Impact of carbon dioxide removal technologies on deep decarbonization: EMF37 MARKAL–NETL modeling results

Journal Article · Mon Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2024 · Energy and Climate Change · OSTI ID:2439353

Victor, Nadejda; Nichols, Christopher

Metrics for quantifying the efficiency of atmospheric CO ₂ reduction by marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR)

Journal Article · Mon Sep 09 00:00:00 EDT 2024 · Environmental Research Letters · OSTI ID:2440086

Yamamoto, Kana; DeVries, Tim; Siegel, David A.

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Science & Technology - Other Topics
carbon dioxide removal
cost
direct air capture
learning curves
modeling
negative emission technologies
policy analysis
siting
techno-economics
technological learning

Title: The cost of direct air capture and storage can be reduced via strategic deployment but is unlikely to fall below stated cost targets

Citation Formats

References (62)

Similar Records

Related Subjects