Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
Abstract
Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for keymore »
- Authors:
- more »
- Publication Date:
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 2229170
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- The Cryosphere (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: The Cryosphere (Online) Journal Volume: 17 Journal Issue: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 1994-0424
- Publisher:
- Copernicus GmbH
- Country of Publication:
- Germany
- Language:
- English
Citation Formats
Seroussi, Hélène, Verjans, Vincent, Nowicki, Sophie, Payne, Antony J., Goelzer, Heiko, Lipscomb, William H., Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Barthel, Alice, Calov, Reinhard, Cullather, Richard, Dumas, Christophe, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K., Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Larour, Eric, Leguy, Gunter R., Lowry, Daniel P., Little, Chistopher M., Morlighem, Mathieu, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, Van Katwyk, Peter, van de Wal, Roderik S. W., Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, and Zwinger, Thomas. Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty. Germany: N. p., 2023.
Web. doi:10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023.
Seroussi, Hélène, Verjans, Vincent, Nowicki, Sophie, Payne, Antony J., Goelzer, Heiko, Lipscomb, William H., Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Barthel, Alice, Calov, Reinhard, Cullather, Richard, Dumas, Christophe, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K., Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Larour, Eric, Leguy, Gunter R., Lowry, Daniel P., Little, Chistopher M., Morlighem, Mathieu, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, Van Katwyk, Peter, van de Wal, Roderik S. W., Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, & Zwinger, Thomas. Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty. Germany. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023
Seroussi, Hélène, Verjans, Vincent, Nowicki, Sophie, Payne, Antony J., Goelzer, Heiko, Lipscomb, William H., Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Barthel, Alice, Calov, Reinhard, Cullather, Richard, Dumas, Christophe, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K., Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Larour, Eric, Leguy, Gunter R., Lowry, Daniel P., Little, Chistopher M., Morlighem, Mathieu, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, Van Katwyk, Peter, van de Wal, Roderik S. W., Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, and Zwinger, Thomas. Thu .
"Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty". Germany. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023.
@article{osti_2229170,
title = {Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty},
author = {Seroussi, Hélène and Verjans, Vincent and Nowicki, Sophie and Payne, Antony J. and Goelzer, Heiko and Lipscomb, William H. and Abe-Ouchi, Ayako and Agosta, Cécile and Albrecht, Torsten and Asay-Davis, Xylar and Barthel, Alice and Calov, Reinhard and Cullather, Richard and Dumas, Christophe and Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. and Gladstone, Rupert and Golledge, Nicholas R. and Gregory, Jonathan M. and Greve, Ralf and Hattermann, Tore and Hoffman, Matthew J. and Humbert, Angelika and Huybrechts, Philippe and Jourdain, Nicolas C. and Kleiner, Thomas and Larour, Eric and Leguy, Gunter R. and Lowry, Daniel P. and Little, Chistopher M. and Morlighem, Mathieu and Pattyn, Frank and Pelle, Tyler and Price, Stephen F. and Quiquet, Aurélien and Reese, Ronja and Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne and Shepherd, Andrew and Simon, Erika and Smith, Robin S. and Straneo, Fiammetta and Sun, Sainan and Trusel, Luke D. and Van Breedam, Jonas and Van Katwyk, Peter and van de Wal, Roderik S. W. and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Zhao, Chen and Zhang, Tong and Zwinger, Thomas},
abstractNote = {Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.},
doi = {10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023},
journal = {The Cryosphere (Online)},
number = 12,
volume = 17,
place = {Germany},
year = {Thu Dec 07 00:00:00 EST 2023},
month = {Thu Dec 07 00:00:00 EST 2023}
}
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023
Works referenced in this record:
Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level
journal, December 2021
- Aschwanden, Andy; Bartholomaus, Timothy C.; Brinkerhoff, Douglas J.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 15, Issue 12
Time Series Forecasting with Gaussian Processes Needs Priors
book, January 2021
- Corani, Giorgio; Benavoli, Alessio; Zaffalon, Marco
- Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases. Applied Data Science Track
A Simple, Coherent Framework for Partitioning Uncertainty in Climate Predictions
journal, September 2011
- Yip, Stan; Ferro, Christopher A. T.; Stephenson, David B.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 17
Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project)
journal, January 2013
- Bindschadler, Robert A.; Nowicki, Sophie; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
- Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 59, Issue 214
Assessment of the importance of ice-shelf buttressing to ice-sheet flow: BUTTRESSING SENSITIVITY
journal, February 2005
- Dupont, T. K.; Alley, R. B.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, Issue 4
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise
journal, May 2021
- Edwards, Tamsin L.; Nowicki, Sophie; Marzeion, Ben
- Nature, Vol. 593, Issue 7857
Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017
journal, January 2019
- Rignot, Eric; Mouginot, Jérémie; Scheuchl, Bernd
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, Issue 4
Fracture field for large-scale ice dynamics
journal, January 2012
- Albrecht, Torsten; Levermann, Anders
- Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 58, Issue 207
A simple inverse method for the distribution of basal sliding coefficients under ice sheets, applied to Antarctica
journal, January 2012
- Pollard, D.; DeConto, R. M.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 6, Issue 5
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
journal, January 2020
- Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Anthony
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 9
initMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6
journal, January 2019
- Seroussi, Hélène; Nowicki, Sophie; Simon, Erika
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 5
Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis
journal, June 2023
- Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Zhai, Panmao; Pirani, Anna
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+)
journal, January 2020
- Cornford, Stephen L.; Seroussi, Helene; Asay-Davis, Xylar S.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 7
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
journal, January 2020
- Seroussi, Hélène; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Antony J.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 9
Inferred basal friction and surface mass balance of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream using data assimilation of ICESat (Ice Cloud and land Elevation Satellite) surface altimetry and ISSM (Ice Sheet System Model)
journal, January 2014
- Larour, E.; Utke, J.; Csatho, B.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 8, Issue 6
Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models
journal, January 2020
- Nowicki, Sophie; Goelzer, Heiko; Seroussi, Hélène
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 7
Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017
journal, June 2018
- team, The IMBIE
- Nature, Vol. 558, Issue 7709, p. 219-222
A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections
journal, January 2020
- Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Asay-Davis, Xylar; Hattermann, Tore
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 9
Projections of Future Sea Level Contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets: Challenges Beyond Dynamical Ice Sheet Modeling
journal, June 2018
- Nowicki, Sophie; Seroussi, Helene
- Oceanography, Vol. 31, Issue 2
A variational LSTM emulator of sea level contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet
journal, July 2023
- Van Katwyk, Peter; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Seroussi, Helene
- ESS Open Archive
Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise
journal, March 2016
- DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David
- Nature, Vol. 531, Issue 7596
A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners
journal, November 2022
- van de Wal, R. S. W.; Nicholls, R. J.; Behar, D.
- Earth's Future, Vol. 10, Issue 11
Future Projections of Antarctic Ice Shelf Melting Based on CMIP5 Scenarios
journal, July 2018
- Naughten, Kaitlin A.; Meissner, Katrin J.; Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 31, Issue 13
An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections
journal, March 2007
- Déqué, M.; Rowell, D. P.; Lüthi, D.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 81, Issue S1
The far reach of ice-shelf thinning in Antarctica
journal, December 2017
- Reese, R.; Gudmundsson, G. H.; Levermann, A.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 1
Exploration of Antarctic Ice Sheet 100-year contribution to sea level rise and associated model uncertainties using the ISSM framework
journal, January 2018
- Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Seroussi, Helene; Schodlok, Michael P.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 12, Issue 11
Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6
journal, January 2016
- Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Payne, Anthony; Larour, Eric
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 12
Brief communication: PICOP, a new ocean melt parameterization under ice shelves combining PICO and a plume model
journal, January 2019
- Pelle, Tyler; Morlighem, Mathieu; Bondzio, Johannes H.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 3
Modelling present-day basal melt rates for Antarctic ice shelves using a parametrization of buoyant meltwater plumes
journal, January 2018
- Lazeroms, Werner M. J.; Jenkins, Adrian; Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 12, Issue 1
Partitioning the Uncertainty of Ensemble Projections of Global Glacier Mass Change
journal, July 2020
- Marzeion, Ben; Hock, Regine; Anderson, Brian
- Earth's Future, Vol. 8, Issue 7
The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model
journal, January 2020
- Reese, Ronja; Levermann, Anders; Albrecht, Torsten
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 9
Historical and Future Projected Warming of Antarctic Shelf Bottom Water in CMIP6 Models
journal, May 2021
- Purich, Ariaan; England, Matthew H.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 48, Issue 10
Aurora Basin, the Weak Underbelly of East Antarctica
journal, April 2020
- Pelle, Tyler; Morlighem, Mathieu; McCormack, Felicity S.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 47, Issue 9
Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure
journal, February 2015
- Pollard, David; DeConto, Robert M.; Alley, Richard B.
- Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol. 412
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
journal, January 2020
- Levermann, Anders; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Albrecht, Torsten
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 11, Issue 1
Results of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP
journal, January 2012
- Pattyn, F.; Schoof, C.; Perichon, L.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 6, Issue 3
Insights into spatial sensitivities of ice mass response to environmental change from the SeaRISE ice sheet modeling project I: Antarctica: SEARISE ANTARCTICA
journal, June 2013
- Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert A.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, Vol. 118, Issue 2
Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration
journal, January 2015
- Goldberg, D. N.; Heimbach, P.; Joughin, I.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 9, Issue 6
Antarctic sub-shelf melt rates via PICO
journal, January 2018
- Reese, Ronja; Albrecht, Torsten; Mengel, Matthias
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 12, Issue 6
ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model
journal, January 2021
- Lipscomb, William H.; Leguy, Gunter R.; Jourdain, Nicolas C.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 15, Issue 2
A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance
journal, November 2012
- Shepherd, A.; Ivins, E. R.; A., G.
- Science, Vol. 338, Issue 6111
Machine Learning Emulation of Gravity Wave Drag in Numerical Weather Forecasting
journal, July 2021
- Chantry, Matthew; Hatfield, Sam; Dueben, Peter
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 13, Issue 7
The safety band of Antarctic ice shelves
journal, February 2016
- Fürst, Johannes Jakob; Durand, Gaël; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 5
Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
preprint, December 2020
- Payne, Antony J.; Nowicki, Sophie; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
- ESS Open Archive
Benchmark experiments for higher-order and full-Stokes ice sheet models (ISMIP–HOM)
journal, January 2008
- Pattyn, F.; Perichon, L.; Aschwanden, A.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 2, Issue 2
When Gaussian Process Meets Big Data: A Review of Scalable GPs
journal, November 2020
- Liu, Haitao; Ong, Yew-Soon; Shen, Xiaobo
- IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems, Vol. 31, Issue 11
Results from the EISMINT model intercomparison: the effects of thermomechanical coupling
journal, January 2000
- Payne, A. J.; Huybrechts, P.; Abe-Ouchi, A.
- Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 46, Issue 153
Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability
journal, February 2019
- Edwards, Tamsin L.; Brandon, Mark A.; Durand, Gael
- Nature, Vol. 566, Issue 7742
Response of the Antarctic ice sheet to future greenhouse warming
journal, December 1990
- Huybrechts, Philippe; Oerlemans, Johannes
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 5, Issue 2
Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt
journal, February 2019
- Golledge, Nicholas R.; Keller, Elizabeth D.; Gomez, Natalya
- Nature, Vol. 566, Issue 7742
Understanding of Contemporary Regional Sea‐Level Change and the Implications for the Future
journal, July 2020
- Hamlington, Benjamin D.; Gardner, Alex S.; Ivins, Erik
- Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 58, Issue 3
The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) – Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet
journal, January 2011
- Martin, M. A.; Winkelmann, R.; Haseloff, M.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 5, Issue 3
Uncertainty in East Antarctic Firn Thickness Constrained Using a Model Ensemble Approach
journal, April 2021
- Verjans, V.; Leeson, A. A.; McMillan, M.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 48, Issue 7
Sensitivity of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, to climate forcing for the next 50 years
journal, January 2014
- Seroussi, H.; Morlighem, M.; Rignot, E.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 8, Issue 5
Insights into spatial sensitivities of ice mass response to environmental change from the SeaRISE ice sheet modeling project II: Greenland: SEARISE GREENLAND
journal, June 2013
- Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert A.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, Vol. 118, Issue 2
Grounding-line migration in plan-view marine ice-sheet models: results of the ice2sea MISMIP3d intercomparison
journal, January 2013
- Pattyn, Frank; Perichon, Laura; Durand, Gaël
- Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 59, Issue 215