Title: Optimising response to an introduction of African swine fever in wild pigs

Abstract

African swine fever virus (ASFv) is a virulent pathogen that threatens domestic swine industries globally and persists in wild boar populations in some countries. Persistence in wild boar can challenge elimination and prevent disease-free status, making it necessary to address wild swine in proactive response plans. In the United States, invasive wild pigs are abundant and found across a wide range of ecological conditions that could drive different epidemiological dynamics among populations. Information on the size of the control areas required to rapidly eliminate the ASFv in wild pigs and how this area should change with management constraints and local ecology is needed to optimize response planning. We developed a spatially explicit disease transmission model contrasting wild pig movement and contact ecology in two ecosystems in Southeastern United States. We simulated ASFv spread and determined the optimal response area (reported as the radius of a circle) for eliminating ASFv rapidly over a range of detection times (when ASFv was detected relative to the true date of introduction), culling capacities (proportion of wild pigs in the culling zone removed weekly) and wild pig densities. Large radii for response areas (14 km) were needed under most conditions but could be shortened withmore » early detection (≤ 8 weeks) and high culling capacities (≥ 15% weekly). Under most conditions, the ASFv was eliminated in less than 22 weeks using optimal control radii, although ecological conditions with high rates of wild pig movement required higher culling capacities (≥ 10% weekly) for elimination within 1 year. The results highlight the importance of adjusting response plans based on local ecology and show that wild pig movement is a better predictor of the optimal response area than the number of ASFv cases early in the outbreak trajectory. Furthermore, our framework provides a tool for determining optimal control plans in different areas, guiding expectations of response impacts, and planning resources needed for rapid elimination.« less

Authors:

Pepin, Kim M.  ^[1];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-9931-8312"

Brown, Vienna R.  ^[1];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Brown, Vienna R."
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-2938-3987"

Yang, Anni ^[2]; Beasley, James C. ^[3]; Boughton, Raoul ^[4]; VerCauteren, Kurt C. ^[1]; Miller, Ryan S. ^[1]; Bevins, Sarah N. ^[1]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO (United States)
2. United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO (United States); Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)
3. Univ. of Georgia, Aiken, SC (United States)
4. Buck Island Ranch, Lake Placid, FL (United States)

Publication Date:

Tue Jul 26 00:00:00 EDT 2022

Research Org.:

Savannah River Ecology Laboratory (SREL), Aiken, SC (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE

OSTI Identifier:

1958174

Grant/Contract Number:  

EM0005228

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 69; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 1865-1674

Publisher:

Wiley

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES; African swine fever; culling; outbreak response; spatially explicit; transmission model; wild pigs