DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: The economic and environmental costs and benefits of the renewable fuel standard

Abstract

Abstract Mandates, like the renewable fuel standard (RFS), for biofuels from corn and cellulosic feedstocks, impact the environment in multiple ways by affecting land use, nitrogen (N)-leakage, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We analyze the differing trade-offs these different types of biofuels offer among these multi-dimensional environmental effects and convert them to a monetized value of environmental damages (or benefits) that can be compared with the economic costs of extending these mandates over the 2016–2030 period. The discounted values of cumulative net benefits (or costs) are then compared to those with a counterfactual level of biofuels that would have been produced in the absence of the RFS over this period. We find that maintaining the corn ethanol mandate at 56 billion l till 2030 will lead to a discounted cumulative value of an economic cost of $199 billion over the 2016–2030 period compared to the counterfactual scenario; this includes $109 billion of economic costs and $85 billion of net monetized environmental damages. The additional implementation of a cellulosic biofuel mandate for 60 billion l by 2030 will increase this economic cost by $69 billion which will be partly offset by the net discounted monetized value of environmental benefits of $20more » billion, resulting in a net cost of $49 billion over the 2016–2030 period. We explore the sensitivity of these net (economic and environmental) costs to alternative values of the social costs of carbon and nitrogen and other technological and market parameters. We find that, unlike corn ethanol, cellulosic biofuels can result in positive net benefits if the monetary benefits of GHG mitigation are valued high and those of N-damages are not very high.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo; ; ; ; ; ORCiD logo
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Center for Advanced Bioenergy and Bioproducts Innovation (CABBI), Urbana, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1835479
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1769410
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC0018420
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Volume: 16 Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United Kingdom
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; social cost of carbon; social cost of nitrogen; cost–benefit analysis; indirect land use change

Citation Formats

Chen, Luoye, Debnath, Deepayan, Zhong, Jia, Ferin, Kelsie, VanLoocke, Andy, and Khanna, Madhu. The economic and environmental costs and benefits of the renewable fuel standard. United Kingdom: N. p., 2021. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abd7af.
Chen, Luoye, Debnath, Deepayan, Zhong, Jia, Ferin, Kelsie, VanLoocke, Andy, & Khanna, Madhu. The economic and environmental costs and benefits of the renewable fuel standard. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd7af
Chen, Luoye, Debnath, Deepayan, Zhong, Jia, Ferin, Kelsie, VanLoocke, Andy, and Khanna, Madhu. Wed . "The economic and environmental costs and benefits of the renewable fuel standard". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd7af.
@article{osti_1835479,
title = {The economic and environmental costs and benefits of the renewable fuel standard},
author = {Chen, Luoye and Debnath, Deepayan and Zhong, Jia and Ferin, Kelsie and VanLoocke, Andy and Khanna, Madhu},
abstractNote = {Abstract Mandates, like the renewable fuel standard (RFS), for biofuels from corn and cellulosic feedstocks, impact the environment in multiple ways by affecting land use, nitrogen (N)-leakage, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We analyze the differing trade-offs these different types of biofuels offer among these multi-dimensional environmental effects and convert them to a monetized value of environmental damages (or benefits) that can be compared with the economic costs of extending these mandates over the 2016–2030 period. The discounted values of cumulative net benefits (or costs) are then compared to those with a counterfactual level of biofuels that would have been produced in the absence of the RFS over this period. We find that maintaining the corn ethanol mandate at 56 billion l till 2030 will lead to a discounted cumulative value of an economic cost of $199 billion over the 2016–2030 period compared to the counterfactual scenario; this includes $109 billion of economic costs and $85 billion of net monetized environmental damages. The additional implementation of a cellulosic biofuel mandate for 60 billion l by 2030 will increase this economic cost by $69 billion which will be partly offset by the net discounted monetized value of environmental benefits of $20 billion, resulting in a net cost of $49 billion over the 2016–2030 period. We explore the sensitivity of these net (economic and environmental) costs to alternative values of the social costs of carbon and nitrogen and other technological and market parameters. We find that, unlike corn ethanol, cellulosic biofuels can result in positive net benefits if the monetary benefits of GHG mitigation are valued high and those of N-damages are not very high.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/abd7af},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 3,
volume = 16,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {Wed Feb 17 00:00:00 EST 2021},
month = {Wed Feb 17 00:00:00 EST 2021}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd7af

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

The social costs of nitrogen
journal, October 2016

  • Keeler, Bonnie L.; Gourevitch, Jesse D.; Polasky, Stephen
  • Science Advances, Vol. 2, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1600219

Global nitrogen and phosphate in urban wastewater for the period 1970 to 2050: N AND P IN URBAN WASTE WATER
journal, September 2009

  • Van Drecht, G.; Bouwman, A. F.; Harrison, J.
  • Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 23, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1029/2009GB003458

Rebound 2007: Analysis of U.S. light-duty vehicle travel statistics
journal, February 2012


Explaining the reductions in US corn ethanol processing costs: Testing competing hypotheses
journal, May 2012


Welfare Impacts of Alternative Biofuel and Energy Policies
journal, September 2011

  • Cui, Jingbo; Lapan, Harvey; Moschini, GianCarlo
  • American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 93, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.1093/ajae/aar053

What can we learn from benefit transfer errors? Evidence from 20 years of research on convergent validity
journal, July 2013

  • Kaul, Sapna; Boyle, Kevin J.; Kuminoff, Nicolai V.
  • Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Vol. 66, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2013.03.001

Impacts of a 32-billion-gallon bioenergy landscape on land and fossil fuel use in the US
journal, January 2016


Water Quality Effects of Economically Viable Land Use Change in the Mississippi River Basin under the Renewable Fuel Standard
journal, January 2021

  • Ferin, Kelsie M.; Chen, Luoye; Zhong, Jia
  • Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 55, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.0c04358

The impact of considering land intensification and updated data on biofuels land use change and emissions estimates
journal, July 2017

  • Taheripour, Farzad; Zhao, Xin; Tyner, Wallace E.
  • Biotechnology for Biofuels, Vol. 10, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1186/s13068-017-0877-y

Unintended Consequences of Carbon Policies: Transportation Fuels, Land-Use, Emissions, and Innovation
journal, July 2015

  • Holland, Stephen P.; Hughes, Jonathan E.; Knittel, Christopher R.
  • The Energy Journal, Vol. 36, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.5547/01956574.36.3.shol

Policy options to address global land use change from biofuels
journal, May 2013


Approaches for More Efficient Biological Conversion of Lignocellulosic Feedstocks to Biofuels and Bioproducts
journal, April 2019

  • Baral, Nawa Raj; Sundstrom, Eric R.; Das, Lalitendu
  • ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering, Vol. 7, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1021/acssuschemeng.9b01229

Effects of US Maize Ethanol on Global Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Estimating Market-mediated Responses
journal, March 2010


Choosing a Functional Form for an International Benefit Transfer: Evidence from a Nine-country Valuation Experiment
journal, April 2017


The fuel market effects of biofuel policies and implications for regulations based on lifecycle emissions
journal, April 2013


Stacking low carbon policies on the renewable fuels standard: Economic and greenhouse gas implications
journal, May 2013


Nitrogen sources and Gulf hypoxia: potential for environmental credit trading
journal, January 2005


Cost of reactive nitrogen release from human activities to the environment in the United States
journal, February 2015

  • Sobota, Daniel J.; Compton, Jana E.; McCrackin, Michelle L.
  • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/025006

World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision
text, January 2012


Components of carbon leakage in the fuel market due to biofuel policies
journal, March 2011

  • de Gorter, Harry; Drabik, Dusan
  • Biofuels, Vol. 2, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.4155/bfs.11.8

The grand challenge of cellulosic biofuels
journal, October 2017


Nitrogen Cycles: Past, Present, and Future
journal, September 2004


Biorefinery for combined production of jet fuel and ethanol from lipid-producing sugarcane: a techno-economic evaluation
journal, September 2017

  • Kumar, Deepak; Long, Stephen P.; Singh, Vijay
  • GCB Bioenergy, Vol. 10, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1111/gcbb.12478

Effect of corn ethanol production on Conservation Reserve Program acres in the US
journal, September 2018


Corn Ethanol and U.S. Biofuel Policy 10 Years Later: A Quantitative Assessment
journal, December 2017

  • Hochman, Gal; Zilberman, David
  • American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 100, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1093/ajae/aax105

The Effect of Biofuels on the International Oil Market
journal, July 2011

  • Hochman, Gal; Rajagopal, Deepak; Zilberman, David
  • Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Vol. 33, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1093/aepp/ppr016

Alternative transportation fuel standards: Welfare effects and climate benefits
journal, May 2014

  • Chen, Xiaoguang; Huang, Haixiao; Khanna, Madhu
  • Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Vol. 67, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2013.09.006

Ethanol Can Contribute to Energy and Environmental Goals
journal, January 2006


Greenhouse gas emission curves for advanced biofuel supply chains
journal, November 2017

  • Daioglou, Vassilis; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Stehfest, Elke
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0006-8

Human Impact on Erodable Phosphorus and Eutrophication: A Global Perspective
journal, January 2001


A nitrogen footprint model to help consumers understand their role in nitrogen losses to the environment
journal, January 2012


Are there Carbon Savings from US Biofuel Policies? The Critical Importance of Accounting for Leakage in Land and Fuel Markets
journal, July 2015


Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change
journal, February 2008


Multi-objective regulations on transportation fuels: Comparing renewable fuel mandates and emission standards
journal, May 2015


Cellulosic ethanol production: Progress, challenges and strategies for solutions
journal, May 2019


Willingness to Pay for Water Quality Improvements in the United States and Canada: Considering Possibilities for International Meta-Analysis and Benefit Transfer
journal, February 2010

  • Johnston, Robert J.; Thomassin, Paul J.
  • Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Vol. 39, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1017/S1068280500001866

Sustainable bioenergy production from marginal lands in the US Midwest
journal, January 2013

  • Gelfand, Ilya; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Zhang, Xuesong
  • Nature, Vol. 493, Issue 7433
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature11811

Beneficial Biofuels--The Food, Energy, and Environment Trilemma
journal, July 2009


Corn-based ethanol production compromises goal of reducing nitrogen export by the Mississippi River
journal, March 2008

  • Donner, S. D.; Kucharik, C. J.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 105, Issue 11
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0708300105

Induced Land Use Emissions due to First and Second Generation Biofuels and Uncertainty in Land Use Emission Factors
journal, January 2013

  • Taheripour, Farzad; Tyner, Wallace E.
  • Economics Research International, Vol. 2013
  • DOI: 10.1155/2013/315787

Fine-Scale Analysis of the Energy–Land–Water Nexus: Nitrate Leaching Implications of Biomass Cofiring in the Midwestern United States
journal, January 2020

  • Sun, Shanxia; Ordonez, Brayam Valqui; Webster, Mort D.
  • Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 54, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.9b07458

Nutrient delivery from the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico and effects of cropland conservation
journal, January 2014

  • White, M. J.; Santhi, C.; Kannan, N.
  • Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, Vol. 69, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.2489/jswc.69.1.26

The Future of Biofuels in an Electrifying Global Transportation Sector: Imperative, Prospects and Challenges
journal, January 2019

  • Debnath, Deepayan; Khanna, Madhu; Rajagopal, Deepak
  • Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Vol. 41, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1093/aepp/ppz023

Costs and Benefits of Nitrogen for Europe and Implications for Mitigation
journal, March 2013

  • Van Grinsven, Hans J. M.; Holland, Mike; Jacobsen, Brian H.
  • Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 47, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1021/es303804g

Benefit Transfer of Environmental and Resource Values: Progress, Prospects and Challenges
journal, November 2018

  • Johnston, Robert J.; Rolfe, John; Zawojska, Ewa
  • International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, Vol. 12, Issue 2-3
  • DOI: 10.1561/101.00000102

The social inefficiency of regulating indirect land use change due to biofuels
journal, June 2017

  • Khanna, Madhu; Wang, Weiwei; Hudiburg, Tara W.
  • Nature Communications, Vol. 8, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15513

Effects of US biofuel policies on US and world petroleum product markets with consequences for greenhouse gas emissions
journal, September 2011


Measuring Indirect Land Use Change with Biofuels: Implications for Policy
journal, August 2012


Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
journal, January 2008


Potential water quality changes due to corn expansion in the Upper Mississippi River Basin
journal, June 2011

  • Secchi, Silvia; Gassman, Philip W.; Jha, Manoj
  • Ecological Applications, Vol. 21, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1890/09-0619.1