Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models
Abstract
Equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global surface temperature response to CO2 doubling,has been persistently uncertain. Recent consensus places it likely within 1.5–4.5 K. Global climate models (GCMs), which attempt to represent all relevant physical processes, provide the most direct means of estimating climate sensitivity via CO2 quadrupling experiments. Here we show that the closely related effective climate sensitivity has increased substantially in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6), with values spanning 1.8–5.6 K across 27 GCMs and exceeding 4.5 K in 10 of them. This(statistically insignificant) increase is primarily due to stronger positive cloud feedbacks from decreasing extratropical low cloud coverage and albedo. Both of these are tied to the physical representation of clouds which in CMIP6 models lead to weaker responses of extratropical low cloud cover and water content to unforced variations in surface temperature. Establishing the plausibility of these higher sensitivity models is imperative given their implied societal ramifications.
- Authors:
-
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Univ. of Leeds (United Kingdom). Institute of Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
- Imperial College, London (United Kingdom). Grantham Inst.
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; European Union Horizon 2020 Project
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1642367
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-JRNL-791582
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276; 991009
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-07NA27344; 641727; 18-ERD-054
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 47; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES
Citation Formats
Zelinka, Mark D., Myers, Timothy A., McCoy, Daniel T., Po‐Chedley, Stephen, Caldwell, Peter M., Ceppi, Paulo, Klein, Stephen A., and Taylor, Karl E. Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models. United States: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.1029/2019gl085782.
Zelinka, Mark D., Myers, Timothy A., McCoy, Daniel T., Po‐Chedley, Stephen, Caldwell, Peter M., Ceppi, Paulo, Klein, Stephen A., & Taylor, Karl E. Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl085782
Zelinka, Mark D., Myers, Timothy A., McCoy, Daniel T., Po‐Chedley, Stephen, Caldwell, Peter M., Ceppi, Paulo, Klein, Stephen A., and Taylor, Karl E. Fri .
"Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl085782. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1642367.
@article{osti_1642367,
title = {Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models},
author = {Zelinka, Mark D. and Myers, Timothy A. and McCoy, Daniel T. and Po‐Chedley, Stephen and Caldwell, Peter M. and Ceppi, Paulo and Klein, Stephen A. and Taylor, Karl E.},
abstractNote = {Equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global surface temperature response to CO2 doubling,has been persistently uncertain. Recent consensus places it likely within 1.5–4.5 K. Global climate models (GCMs), which attempt to represent all relevant physical processes, provide the most direct means of estimating climate sensitivity via CO2 quadrupling experiments. Here we show that the closely related effective climate sensitivity has increased substantially in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6), with values spanning 1.8–5.6 K across 27 GCMs and exceeding 4.5 K in 10 of them. This(statistically insignificant) increase is primarily due to stronger positive cloud feedbacks from decreasing extratropical low cloud coverage and albedo. Both of these are tied to the physical representation of clouds which in CMIP6 models lead to weaker responses of extratropical low cloud cover and water content to unforced variations in surface temperature. Establishing the plausibility of these higher sensitivity models is imperative given their implied societal ramifications.},
doi = {10.1029/2019gl085782},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 1,
volume = 47,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Jan 03 00:00:00 EST 2020},
month = {Fri Jan 03 00:00:00 EST 2020}
}
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