Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions: Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions
Abstract
Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5–1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0–4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[3];
[2];
[4];
[5]
- CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo (Norway)
- Univ. of Leeds (United Kingdom)
- NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)
- Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom)
- Climate Analytics, Berlin (Germany)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1499122
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0012549
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 45; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; aerosols; black carbon; organic carbon; sulfate; climate change; extreme weather
Citation Formats
Samset, B. H., Sand, M., Smith, C. J., Bauer, S. E., Forster, P. M., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Osprey, S., and Schleussner, C. -F. Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions: Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1002/2017gl076079.
Samset, B. H., Sand, M., Smith, C. J., Bauer, S. E., Forster, P. M., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Osprey, S., & Schleussner, C. -F. Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions: Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076079
Samset, B. H., Sand, M., Smith, C. J., Bauer, S. E., Forster, P. M., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Osprey, S., and Schleussner, C. -F. Mon .
"Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions: Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076079. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1499122.
@article{osti_1499122,
title = {Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions: Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions},
author = {Samset, B. H. and Sand, M. and Smith, C. J. and Bauer, S. E. and Forster, P. M. and Fuglestvedt, J. S. and Osprey, S. and Schleussner, C. -F.},
abstractNote = {Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5–1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0–4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.},
doi = {10.1002/2017gl076079},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 2,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jan 08 00:00:00 EST 2018},
month = {Mon Jan 08 00:00:00 EST 2018}
}
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Figure 1: Model responses to a removal of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. (left to right) Changes to surface temperature, precipitation, TXx, RX5D, and CDD. The solid bars show land area means; the hatched bars show global means. The yellow circles show changes over land, weighted by population density. The black barsmore »
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