Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments

Persad, G.; Samset, B. H.; Wilcox, L. J.; Allen, Robert J.; Bollasina, Massimo A.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Bonfils, Céline; Crocker, Tom; Joshi, Manoj; Lund, Marianne T.; Marvel, Kate; Merikanto, Joonas; Nordling, Kalle; Undorf, Sabine; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Westervelt, Daniel M.; Zhao, Alcide

doi:10.1088/2752-5295/acd6af

Title: Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments

Journal Article · 05 June 2023 · Environmental Research. Climate

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acd6af · OSTI ID:1984005

;

; Wilcox, L. J.;

; Bollasina, Massimo A.;

; Bonfils, Céline;

; Joshi, Manoj;

; Marvel, Kate;

; Nordling, Kalle; Undorf, Sabine; van Vuuren, Detlef P.;

;

Abstract Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear the brunt of aerosols’ climate and air quality effects, amplifying risk through heightened exposure and vulnerability. However, many policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risk, including those in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report, underrepresent aerosols’ complex and regionally diverse climate effects, reducing them to a globally averaged offset to greenhouse gas warming. We argue that this constitutes a major missing element in society’s ability to prepare for future climate change. We outline a pathway towards progress and call for greater interaction between the aerosol research, impact modeling, scenario development, and risk assessment communities.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Columbia University; H2020 Societal Challenges; National Science Foundation (NSF); Research Council of Norway; USDOE; USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 1984005

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL-837367

Journal Information:: Environmental Research. Climate, Journal Name: Environmental Research. Climate Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 2; ISSN 2752-5295

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

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