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This content will become publicly available on May 7, 2019

Title: Inverse Estimation of an Annual Cycle of California's Nitrous Oxide Emissions

Nitrous oxide (N 2O) is a potent long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) and the strongest current emissions of global anthropogenic stratospheric ozone depletion weighted by its ozone depletion potential. In California, N 2O is the third largest contributor to the state's anthropogenic GHG emission inventory, though no study has quantified its statewide annual emissions through top-down inverse modeling. Here we present the first annual (2013–2014) statewide top-down estimates of anthropogenic N 2O emissions. Utilizing continuous N 2O observations from six sites across California in a hierarchical Bayesian inversion, we estimate that annual anthropogenic emissions are 1.5–2.5 times (at 95% confidence) the state inventory (41 Gg N 2O in 2014). Without mitigation, this estimate represents 4–7% of total GHG emissions assuming that other reported GHG emissions are reasonably correct. This suggests that control of N 2O could be an important component in meeting California's emission reduction goals of 40% and 80% below 1990 levels of the total GHG emissions (in CO 2 equivalent) by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Finally, our seasonality analysis suggests that emissions are similar across seasons within posterior uncertainties. Future work is needed to provide source attribution for subregions and further characterization of seasonal variability.
Authors:
ORCiD logo [1] ; ORCiD logo [2] ; ORCiD logo [3] ; ORCiD logo [4] ;  [5] ; ORCiD logo [4] ; ORCiD logo [1] ; ORCiD logo [1] ; ORCiD logo [6] ; ORCiD logo [6] ; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  2. California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Bay Area Air Quality Management District, San Francisco, CA (United States)
  3. Univ. of California, Riverside, CA (United States). Dept. of Chemistry and Air Pollution Research Center
  4. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab.
  5. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab.; Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)
  6. Univ. of California, Riverside, CA (United States). Dept. of Chemistry and Air Pollution Research Center
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 123; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Research Org:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
OSTI Identifier:
1461148
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1436354