Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios
Abstract
Abstract In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006–2015), over the Asian‐Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more‐frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global‐mean temperature changemore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[1];
[1];
- NCAS‐Climate University of Reading Reading UK, Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK
- Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1423391
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1423392; OSTI ID: 1544312
- Grant/Contract Number:
- DE‐AC02‐05CH11231; AC02‐05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Earth's Future
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Earth's Future Journal Volume: 6 Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES
Citation Formats
Chevuturi, Amulya, Klingaman, Nicholas P., Turner, Andrew G., and Hannah, Shaun. Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1002/2017EF000734.
Chevuturi, Amulya, Klingaman, Nicholas P., Turner, Andrew G., & Hannah, Shaun. Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000734
Chevuturi, Amulya, Klingaman, Nicholas P., Turner, Andrew G., and Hannah, Shaun. Thu .
"Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000734.
@article{osti_1423391,
title = {Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios},
author = {Chevuturi, Amulya and Klingaman, Nicholas P. and Turner, Andrew G. and Hannah, Shaun},
abstractNote = {Abstract In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006–2015), over the Asian‐Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more‐frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global‐mean temperature change to 1.5°C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming.},
doi = {10.1002/2017EF000734},
journal = {Earth's Future},
number = 3,
volume = 6,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2018},
month = {Thu Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2018}
}
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