Title: Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Lastly, results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events,more » exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.« less

Authors:

Lee, Donghyun  ^[1];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Lee, Donghyun"
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0003-0184-2712"

Min, Seung-Ki  ^[1];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Min, Seung-Ki"
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-6749-010X"

Fischer, Erich  ^[2];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Fischer, Erich"
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0003-1931-6737"

Shiogama, Hideo ^[3]; Bethke, Ingo ^[4]; Lierhammer, Ludwig ^[5]; Scinocca, John F. ^[6]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Pohang Univ. of Science and Technology (POSTECH) (Korea, Republic of). Division of Environmental Science and Engineering
2. Federal Inst. of Technology, Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science
3. National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki (Japan)
4. Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway). Uni Research Climate
5. German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)
6. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria BC (Canada). Environment and Climate Change Canada

Publication Date:

Thu Apr 12 00:00:00 EDT 2018

Research Org.:

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF); Bundesministerium fur Bildung und Forschung (BMBF)

OSTI Identifier:

1523641

Grant/Contract Number:  

AC2-5CH11231

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Environmental Research Letters

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 13; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:

IOP Publishing

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES