Probability of emergence of novel temperature regimes at different levels of cumulative carbon emissions
Abstract
The United Nations Paris Agreement creates new urgency and importance for understanding the emergence of climate impacts at different levels of cumulative carbon emissions. Using observations and climate models, we quantify the probability that different areas of the globe will experience permanent separation from the historical temperature regime, as a function of both time and cumulative emissions. We find that, in addition to a ~50% probability that global warming will exceed 2°C, cumulative emissions of 1000 gigatons of carbon (GtC) are likely to cause large areas of the tropics to transition to a new climate regime in which the annual temperature is never less than four standard deviations above the baseline mean. Although limiting cumulative emissions to 750 GtC substantially reduces these risks, the likelihood that some regions will still permanently experience extremely high annual temperatures suggests a critical role for adaptation, even if the Paris Agreement's mitigation targets are met.
- Authors:
-
- Department of Earth System Science Stanford University Stanford CA, Woods Institute for the Environment Stanford University Stanford CA
- Department of Earth System Science Stanford University Stanford CA
- Publication Date:
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1401485
- Grant/Contract Number:
- DE‐SC005171
- Resource Type:
- Publisher's Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment Journal Volume: 14 Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 1540-9295
- Publisher:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Citation Formats
Diffenbaugh, Noah S., and Charland, Allison. Probability of emergence of novel temperature regimes at different levels of cumulative carbon emissions. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1002/fee.1320.
Diffenbaugh, Noah S., & Charland, Allison. Probability of emergence of novel temperature regimes at different levels of cumulative carbon emissions. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.1320
Diffenbaugh, Noah S., and Charland, Allison. Mon .
"Probability of emergence of novel temperature regimes at different levels of cumulative carbon emissions". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.1320.
@article{osti_1401485,
title = {Probability of emergence of novel temperature regimes at different levels of cumulative carbon emissions},
author = {Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Charland, Allison},
abstractNote = {The United Nations Paris Agreement creates new urgency and importance for understanding the emergence of climate impacts at different levels of cumulative carbon emissions. Using observations and climate models, we quantify the probability that different areas of the globe will experience permanent separation from the historical temperature regime, as a function of both time and cumulative emissions. We find that, in addition to a ~50% probability that global warming will exceed 2°C, cumulative emissions of 1000 gigatons of carbon (GtC) are likely to cause large areas of the tropics to transition to a new climate regime in which the annual temperature is never less than four standard deviations above the baseline mean. Although limiting cumulative emissions to 750 GtC substantially reduces these risks, the likelihood that some regions will still permanently experience extremely high annual temperatures suggests a critical role for adaptation, even if the Paris Agreement's mitigation targets are met.},
doi = {10.1002/fee.1320},
journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment},
number = 8,
volume = 14,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Oct 03 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Mon Oct 03 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}
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