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Title: Global Carbon Budget 2018

Journal Article · · Earth System Science Data (Online)
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  1. University of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)
  2. CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo (Norway)
  3. University of Exeter (United Kingdom)
  4. Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Postfach (Germany)
  5. Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich, Luisenstr (Germany); Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  6. Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra (Australia)
  7. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research (Germany)
  8. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada)
  9. University of Miami, FL (United States); National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA/AOML), Miami, FL (United States)
  10. Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich (Germany)
  11. Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X, Paris (France)
  12. Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers (France)
  13. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  14. Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)
  15. Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ) (Belgium)
  16. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra (Australia)
  17. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  18. Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC), Falmouth, MA (United States)
  19. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  20. Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States)
  21. University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten (Norway)
  22. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  23. Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Minato-ku, Tokyo (Japan)
  24. Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)
  25. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (The Netherlands)
  26. Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06) (France)
  27. University of Bern (Switzerland)
  28. University of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom); Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)
  29. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  30. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  31. Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan)
  32. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania (Australia); University of Tasmania, Hobart (Australia)
  33. University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (Norway)
  34. National Research Institute for Far Sea Fisheries, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, Kanazawa-Ku (Japan)
  35. JAMSTEC, Yokohama (Japan)
  36. Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
  37. Wageningen University & Research (The Netherlands); University of Groningen, Nijenborgh (The Netherlands)
  38. University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (Norway); NORCE Norwegian Research Centre and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  39. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
  40. Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock (Germany)
  41. Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)
  42. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United States)
  43. Centre National de Recherche Météorologique, Unite mixte de recherche 3589 Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse (France)
  44. Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany)
  45. NORCE Norwegian Research Centre and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  46. GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (Germany)
  47. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA/PMEL), Seattle, WA (United States)
  48. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL), Boulder, CO (United States)
  49. Auburn Univ., AL (United States)
  50. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome (Italy)
  51. Wageningen University & Research (The Netherlands)
  52. Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (The Netherlands)
+ Show Author Affiliations

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components ofthe global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008–2017), EFF was9.4±0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of0.5 GtC yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 %and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yr-1. Also for 2017,ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yr-1,with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmosphericCO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017.For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959–2017,but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics,and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016,2015a, b, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2018.

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725; FC03-97ER62402; SC0012972
OSTI ID:
1502552
Journal Information:
Earth System Science Data (Online), Journal Name: Earth System Science Data (Online) Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 10; ISSN 1866-3516
Publisher:
CopernicusCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Terminology as a key uncertainty in net land use and land cover change carbon flux estimates journal January 2014
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Evaluation of NorESM-OC (versions 1 and 1.2), the ocean carbon-cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1) journal January 2016
Competition between plant functional types in the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM) v. 2.0 journal January 2016
Global surface-ocean p CO 2 and sea–air CO 2 flux variability from an observation-driven ocean mixed-layer scheme journal January 2013
Global Carbon Budget 2016 text January 2016
A Bayesian ensemble data assimilation to constrain model parameters and land-use carbon emissions text January 2018
Three decades of global methane sources and sinks text January 2013

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High spatial and seasonal heterogeneity of pCO2 and CO2 emissions in a karst groundwater-stream continuum, southern China journal July 2019
A dynamic integer programming approach for free flight air traffic management (ATM) scenario with 4D-trajectories and energy efficiency aspects journal August 2019
Towards net zero CO2 emissions without relying on massive carbon dioxide removal journal March 2019
Observing Changes in Ocean Carbonate Chemistry: Our Autonomous Future journal May 2019
Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks Operating in the Climate System journal November 2019
The Expanding Footprint of Rapid Arctic Change journal March 2019
Nitrogen Deposition Maintains a Positive Effect on Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration in the 21st Century Despite Growing Phosphorus Limitation at Regional Scales journal June 2019
Diverse Mycorrhizal Associations Enhance Terrestrial C Storage in a Global Model journal April 2019
Underestimation of Global Photosynthesis in Earth System Models Due to Representation of Vegetation Structure journal November 2019
Wintertime f CO 2 Variability in the Subpolar North Atlantic Since 2004 journal February 2019
Carbonate Dissolution Enhanced by Ocean Stagnation and Respiration at the Onset of the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum journal January 2019
Detecting Regional Modes of Variability in Observation‐Based Surface Ocean p CO 2 journal March 2019
No Proportional Increase of Terrestrial Gross Carbon Sequestration From the Greening Earth journal August 2019
Reassessing Southern Ocean Air‐Sea CO 2 Flux Estimates With the Addition of Biogeochemical Float Observations journal November 2019
Acceleration of Ocean Acidification in the Western North Pacific journal November 2019
UKESM1: Description and Evaluation of the U.K. Earth System Model journal December 2019
Constraints on Earth System Functioning at the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum From the Marine Silicon Cycle journal May 2020
Emissions are still rising: ramp up the cuts journal December 2018
Global industrial carbon emissions to reach all-time high in 2018 journal December 2018
Drivers of declining CO2 emissions in 18 developed economies journal February 2019
Nitrogen and phosphorus constrain the CO2 fertilization of global plant biomass journal August 2019
A canary in the Southern Ocean journal August 2019
Increasing impacts of extreme droughts on vegetation productivity under climate change journal November 2019
Mitigation of ozone damage to the world’s land ecosystems by source sector journal January 2020
Cleaner air is a win–win journal January 2020
Recent divergence in the contributions of tropical and boreal forests to the terrestrial carbon sink journal January 2020
Global fire emissions buffered by the production of pyrogenic carbon journal August 2019
Peatlands as prolific carbon sinks journal October 2019
The fate of carbon in a mature forest under carbon dioxide enrichment journal April 2020
Variation in trends of consumption based carbon accounts journal June 2019
Decadal acidification in Atlantic and Mediterranean water masses exchanging at the Strait of Gibraltar journal October 2019
The emergence and evolution of Earth System Science journal January 2020
Rational design of tailored porous carbon-based materials for CO 2 capture journal January 2019
Global warming has increased global economic inequality journal April 2019
Decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink journal May 2019
Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges journal November 2019
Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO 2 emissions journal December 2019
Seven Principles of Strong Climate Change Planning journal December 2019
CO 2 emissions embodied in China’s export journal May 2019
Engineering climate debt: temperature overshoot and peak-shaving as risky subprime mortgage lending journal May 2019
Power sector asset stranding effects of climate policies journal April 2019
Meeting GHG reduction targets requires accounting for all forest sector emissions journal August 2019
The emission benefits of European integration journal August 2019
A global decarbonisation bond journal September 2019
Persistent fossil fuel growth threatens the Paris Agreement and planetary health journal December 2019
High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system journal December 2019
Greenhouse gas fluxes from reservoirs determined by watershed lithology, morphometry, and anthropogenic pressure journal March 2020
Novel amine functionalized metal organic framework synthesis for enhanced carbon dioxide capture journal September 2019
Pleistocene Arctic megafaunal ecological engineering as a natural climate solution? journal January 2020
The fate of carbon in a mature forest under carbon dioxide enrichment posted_content July 2019
Desert breath—How fog promotes a novel type of soil biocenosis, forming the coastal Atacama Desert’s living skin journal November 2019
The physics and ecology of mining carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by ecosystems journal January 2019
Quantifying the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of changes in forest and agricultural land in South and Southeast Asia journal March 2019
We need both natural and energy solutions to stabilize our climate journal March 2019
Increased high‐latitude photosynthetic carbon gain offset by respiration carbon loss during an anomalous warm winter to spring transition journal November 2019
Interannual variation of terrestrial carbon cycle: Issues and perspectives journal November 2019
Global change biology: A primer journal December 2019
State of the science in reconciling top‐down and bottom‐up approaches for terrestrial CO 2 budget journal December 2019
Evidence for large carbon sink and long residence time in semiarid forests based on 15 year flux and inventory records journal December 2019
Historical changes in the stomatal limitation of photosynthesis: empirical support for an optimality principle journal December 2019
Do all chlorophyll fluorescence emission wavelengths capture the spring recovery of photosynthesis in boreal evergreen foliage? journal August 2019
Measuring the success of climate change adaptation and mitigation in terrestrial ecosystems journal December 2019
Comment on “The global tree restoration potential” journal October 2019
Economic Dimension of the Climate Challenge to Russia’s Sustainable Development journal March 2019
Piercing the corporate veil: Towards a better assessment of the position of transnational oil and gas companies in the global carbon budget journal July 2019
Electrical energy storage with engineered biological systems journal May 2019
A generalized approach for selecting solar energy system configurations for a wide range of applications journal January 2019
Desert breath—How fog promotes a novel type of soil biocenosis, forming the coastal Atacama Desert’s living skin text January 2019
Biological carbon pump in the ocean and phytoplankton structure journal January 2019
Hormonal Effects of an Enzymatically Hydrolyzed Animal Protein-Based Biostimulant (Pepton) in Water-Stressed Tomato Plants journal June 2019
Analysis of the Diurnal, Weekly, and Seasonal Cycles and Annual Trends in Atmospheric CO2 and CH4 at Tower Network in Siberia from 2005 to 2016 journal November 2019
An Investigation of Parameter Sensitivity of Minimum Complexity Earth Simulator journal January 2020
Valuing Carbon Sequestration to Finance Afforestation Projects in China journal September 2019
Post-Fire Carbon Dynamics in Subalpine Forests of the Rocky Mountains journal December 2019
Impact of Nonzero Intercept Gas Transfer Velocity Parameterizations on Global and Regional Ocean–Atmosphere CO2 Fluxes journal May 2019
The Driving Forces of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Emissions Have Spatial Spillover Effects in Inner Mongolia journal May 2019
Methane Emission Estimates by the Global High-Resolution Inverse Model Using National Inventories journal October 2019
Does the Low-Carbon Pilot Initiative Reduce Carbon Emissions? Evidence from the Application of the Synthetic Control Method in Guangdong Province journal July 2019
Roles of Climate Change and Increasing CO2 in Driving Changes of Net Primary Productivity in China Simulated Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model journal August 2019
Identification of Enablers and Barriers for Public Bike Share System Adoption using Social Media and Statistical Models journal November 2019
The zero emission commitment model intercomparison project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: Quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emission text January 2019
Analysis of temporal and spatial variability of atmospheric CO2 concentration within Paris from the GreenLITE™ laser imaging experiment journal January 2019
Objective evaluation of surface- and satellite-driven carbon dioxide atmospheric inversions journal January 2019
Emission of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning – an updated assessment journal January 2019
Global carbon budgets estimated from atmospheric O 2 ∕N 2 and CO 2 observations in the western Pacific region over a 15-year period journal January 2019
Continuous atmospheric CO2, CH4 and CO measurements at the Observatoire Pérenne de l'Environnement (OPE) station in France from 2011 to 2018 journal January 2019
Reviews and syntheses: influences of landscape structure and land uses on local to regional climate and air quality journal January 2019
Insights from year-long measurements of air–water CH4 and CO2 exchange in a coastal environment journal January 2019
Enhanced Weathering and related element fluxes – a cropland mesocosm approach journal January 2020
Carbon–nitrogen interactions in European forests and semi-natural vegetation – Part 1: Fluxes and budgets of carbon, nitrogen and greenhouse gases from ecosystem monitoring and modelling journal January 2020
Intercomparison of four methods to estimate coral calcification under various environmental conditions journal January 2020
Disequilibrium of terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget caused by disturbance-induced emissions and non-CO2 carbon export flows: a global model assessment journal January 2019
GLODAPv2.2019 – an update of GLODAPv2 journal January 2019
Global Carbon Budget 2019 journal January 2019
The biophysics, ecology, and biogeochemistry of functionally diverse, vertically and horizontally heterogeneous ecosystems: the Ecosystem Demography model, version 2.2 – Part 1: Model description journal January 2019
The biophysics, ecology, and biogeochemistry of functionally diverse, vertically and horizontally heterogeneous ecosystems: the Ecosystem Demography model, version 2.2 – Part 2: Model evaluation for tropical South America journal January 2019
The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions journal January 2019
The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5.0.3) journal January 2019
Accounting for forest age in the tile-based dynamic global vegetation model JSBACH4 (4.20p7; git feature/forests) – a land surface model for the ICON-ESM journal January 2020

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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