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Title: Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?

While carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC and non-LULCC sources (primarily fossil fuel burning), and show that because of the extra warming associated with the co-emission of methane and nitrous oxide with LULCC carbon dioxide emissions, and a co-emission of cooling aerosols with non-LULCC emissions of carbon dioxide, the linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and temperature has a two-fold higher slope for LULCC than for non-LULCC activities. Moreover, projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a 'business as usual' future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5 °C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100. Thus, policies tomore » reduce LULCC emissions must remain a high priority if we are to achieve the low to medium temperature change targets proposed as a part of the Paris Agreement. In conclusion, future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [5]
  1. Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States). Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
  2. Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ (United States). Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
  3. Woods Hold Oceanographic Inst., Woods Hole, MA (United States)
  4. Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States). Dept. of Biological and Environmental Engineering
  5. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States). Dept. of Earth System Science
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0016362; DOE-SC0016362
Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Research Org:
Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; land use; climate change; agriculture; deforestation
OSTI Identifier:
1392180
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1474144

Mahowald, Natalie M., Ward, Daniel S., Doney, Scott C., Hess, Peter G., and Randerson, James T.. Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa836d.
Mahowald, Natalie M., Ward, Daniel S., Doney, Scott C., Hess, Peter G., & Randerson, James T.. Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?. United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa836d.
Mahowald, Natalie M., Ward, Daniel S., Doney, Scott C., Hess, Peter G., and Randerson, James T.. 2017. "Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?". United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa836d.
@article{osti_1392180,
title = {Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?},
author = {Mahowald, Natalie M. and Ward, Daniel S. and Doney, Scott C. and Hess, Peter G. and Randerson, James T.},
abstractNote = {While carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC and non-LULCC sources (primarily fossil fuel burning), and show that because of the extra warming associated with the co-emission of methane and nitrous oxide with LULCC carbon dioxide emissions, and a co-emission of cooling aerosols with non-LULCC emissions of carbon dioxide, the linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and temperature has a two-fold higher slope for LULCC than for non-LULCC activities. Moreover, projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a 'business as usual' future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5 °C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100. Thus, policies to reduce LULCC emissions must remain a high priority if we are to achieve the low to medium temperature change targets proposed as a part of the Paris Agreement. In conclusion, future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa836d},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 9,
volume = 12,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {9}
}