Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates
Abstract
The large socioeconomic costs of droughts make them a crucial target for impact assessments of climate change scenarios. Using multiple drought metrics and a set of simulations with the Community Earth System Model targeting 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial global mean temperatures, we investigate changes in aridity and the risk of consecutive drought years. If warming is limited to 2°C, these simulations suggest little change in drought risk for the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains compared to present day. In the Mediterranean and central Europe, however, drought risk increases significantly for both 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets, and the additional 0.5°C of the 2°C climate leads to significantly higher drought risk. Our study suggests that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, as aspired to by the Paris Climate Agreement, may have benefits for future drought risk but that such benefits may be regional and in some cases highly uncertain.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[3];
[2];
[2];
[3];
[4]
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States). Research Applications Lab.
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States). Climate and Global Dynamics Lab.
- Univ. of Bern (Switzerland). Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Dept. of Climate and Environmental Physics
- Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division; National Science Foundation (NSF); US Dept. of the Interior (DOI), Bureau of Reclamation (USBR); Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)
- Contributing Org.:
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1473891
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1375068
- Grant/Contract Number:
- FC02‐97ER62402; AGS‐1243204; AGS‐1401400; AGS 1243125
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 44; Journal Issue: 14; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; drought; drought risk; climate modeling; projections; climate targets; mitigation
Citation Formats
Lehner, Flavio, Coats, Sloan, Stocker, Thomas F., Pendergrass, Angeline G., Sanderson, Benjamin M., Raible, Christoph C., and Smerdon, Jason E. Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1002/2017GL074117.
Lehner, Flavio, Coats, Sloan, Stocker, Thomas F., Pendergrass, Angeline G., Sanderson, Benjamin M., Raible, Christoph C., & Smerdon, Jason E. Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074117
Lehner, Flavio, Coats, Sloan, Stocker, Thomas F., Pendergrass, Angeline G., Sanderson, Benjamin M., Raible, Christoph C., and Smerdon, Jason E. Fri .
"Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074117. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1473891.
@article{osti_1473891,
title = {Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates},
author = {Lehner, Flavio and Coats, Sloan and Stocker, Thomas F. and Pendergrass, Angeline G. and Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Raible, Christoph C. and Smerdon, Jason E.},
abstractNote = {The large socioeconomic costs of droughts make them a crucial target for impact assessments of climate change scenarios. Using multiple drought metrics and a set of simulations with the Community Earth System Model targeting 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial global mean temperatures, we investigate changes in aridity and the risk of consecutive drought years. If warming is limited to 2°C, these simulations suggest little change in drought risk for the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains compared to present day. In the Mediterranean and central Europe, however, drought risk increases significantly for both 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets, and the additional 0.5°C of the 2°C climate leads to significantly higher drought risk. Our study suggests that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, as aspired to by the Paris Climate Agreement, may have benefits for future drought risk but that such benefits may be regional and in some cases highly uncertain.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL074117},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 14,
volume = 44,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Jul 07 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Fri Jul 07 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}
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Figures / Tables:
Figure 1: Change in mean PDSI (a) from present day (1967–2016) to 1.5°C (2051–2100), (b) from present day to 2°C (2051– 2100), and (c) from 1.5°C to 2°C, as simulated by CESM. Hatching indicates differences that are not significant according to a two-sided t test (95% confidence). Boxes indicate regionsmore »
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The relation of climate extremes with global warming in the Mediterranean region and its north versus south contrast
journal, February 2020
- Lionello, Piero; Scarascia, Luca
- Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 20, Issue 1
Detectable Impacts of the Past Half‐Degree Global Warming on Summertime Hot Extremes in China
journal, July 2018
- Chen, Yang; Zhai, Panmao; Zhou, Baiquan
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 14
Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 °C and 2 °C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia
journal, August 2019
- Henley, Benjamin J.; Peel, Murray C.; Nathan, Rory
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 8
Climate Change and Drought: the Soil Moisture Perspective
journal, April 2018
- Berg, Alexis; Sheffield, Justin
- Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 4, Issue 2
Projected changes in climate extremes in China in a 1.5 °C warmer world
journal, March 2018
- Chen, Huopo; Sun, Jianqi
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 38, Issue 9
South Asian river basins in a 1.5 °C warmer world
journal, November 2018
- Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Wijngaard, René R.
- Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 19, Issue 3
Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts
journal, April 2018
- Samaniego, L.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 5
Differential Impacts of 1.5 and 2 °C Warming on Extreme Events Over China Using Statistically Downscaled and Bias-Corrected CESM Low-Warming Experiment
journal, September 2018
- Yang, Yi; Tang, Jianping; Wang, Shuyu
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 18
Impacts of Global Change on Mediterranean Forests and Their Services
journal, November 2017
- Peñuelas, Josep; Sardans, Jordi; Filella, Iolanda
- Forests, Vol. 8, Issue 12
Drivers, timing and some impacts of global aridity change
journal, October 2018
- Lickley, Megan; Solomon, Susan
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 10
Record-breaking climate extremes in Africa under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios
journal, April 2018
- Nangombe, Shingirai; Zhou, Tianjun; Zhang, Wenxia
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 5
Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds
journal, January 2018
- Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk
journal, January 2019
- Russo, Simone; Sillmann, Jana; Sippel, Sebastian
- Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1
The changing water cycle: The eco‐hydrologic impacts of forest density reduction in Mediterranean (seasonally dry) regions
journal, May 2019
- Tague, Christina L.; Moritz, Max; Hanan, Erin
- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water
Half‐a‐Degree Matters for Reducing and Delaying Global Land Exposure to Combined Daytime‐Nighttime Hot Extremes
journal, August 2019
- Chen, Yang; Zhou, Baiquan; Zhai, Panmao
- Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 8
Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5 °C to a 2 °C warmer world
journal, March 2019
- Madakumbura, Gavin D.; Kim, Hyungjun; Utsumi, Nobuyuki
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Global implications of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds on extreme river flows
journal, August 2018
- Paltan, Homero; Allen, Myles; Haustein, Karsten
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 9
European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE
journal, July 2019
- Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; Seim, Andrea; Krusic, Paul J.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 8
Power Law Growth and Delayed Feedbacks in Socio‐Hydrological Systems
text, January 2019
- Parolari, Anthony J.; Manoli, Gabriele
- ETH Zurich
Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5 °C to a 2 °C warmer world
text, January 2019
- Madakumbura, Gavin D.; Hyungjun, Kim; Utsumi, Nobuyuki
- ETH Zurich
Figures / Tables found in this record:
Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.