Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region

Bunyon, Enock; Hadjimichael, Antonia; Aquino, Carl Fredrick; Son, Kyongho; Chowdhury, Pranab Roy; Deines, Jullian; Hetland, Robert

doi:10.57931/2281238

Title: Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region

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Abstract

The Great Lakes Region's water quality and ecological health are threatened by the export of nutrients from agricultural lands, which causes eutrophication, hypoxia, and destructive algal blooms. The intensification of hydrologic cycles brought about by climate change is expected to exacerbate nutrient loading in the region, and, at the same time, agricultural adaptation to changing conditions is also expected to affect loading through shifting amounts and timing of fertilization. Quantifying these future effects and their interactions necessitates modeling both the human and natural processes as a coupled system, by pairing land use and agricultural management with hydrologic modeling. At the same time, compounding uncertainties arising from the complex interactions in both systems significantly limit our predictive understanding of the region's impacts. This study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed for simulating the impact of various farmer decisions on watershed functions in Western Lake Erie watersheds, and an under-development agent-based model (ABM) for agricultural management decisions. The aim of this study is to use global sensitivity analysis on the coupled ABM and SWAT models to quantify how uncertainty in both models interactively affects nutrient loading. To do so, we will conduct Sobol sensitivity analysis experiments at different levelsmore »« less

Authors:

Bunyon, Enock;

; Aquino, Carl Fredrick;

;

Pennsylvania State University; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Pennsylvania State University
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Publication Date:: Mon Jan 15 04:00:00 UTC 2024

Research Org.:: MultiSector Dynamics - Living, Intuitive, Value-adding, Environment

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Subject:: Climate Change; Earth Systems; Water

OSTI Identifier:: 2281238

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.57931/2281238

Citation Formats


                    Bunyon, Enock, Hadjimichael, Antonia, Aquino, Carl Fredrick, Son, Kyongho, Chowdhury, Pranab Roy, Deines, Jullian, and Hetland, Robert. Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region.  United States: N. p., 2024. 
        Web.  doi:10.57931/2281238.

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                    Bunyon, Enock, Hadjimichael, Antonia, Aquino, Carl Fredrick, Son, Kyongho, Chowdhury, Pranab Roy, Deines, Jullian, & Hetland, Robert. Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region.  United States.  doi:https://doi.org/10.57931/2281238

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                    Bunyon, Enock, Hadjimichael, Antonia, Aquino, Carl Fredrick, Son, Kyongho, Chowdhury, Pranab Roy, Deines, Jullian, and Hetland, Robert. 2024.  
"Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region".  United States.  doi:https://doi.org/10.57931/2281238.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/2281238. Pub date:Mon Jan 15 04:00:00 UTC 2024

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@article{osti_2281238,

  title        = {Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region},

  author       = {Bunyon, Enock and Hadjimichael, Antonia and Aquino, Carl Fredrick and Son, Kyongho and Chowdhury, Pranab Roy and Deines, Jullian and Hetland, Robert},

  abstractNote = {The Great Lakes Region's water quality and ecological health are threatened by the export of nutrients from agricultural lands, which causes eutrophication, hypoxia, and destructive algal blooms. The intensification of hydrologic cycles brought about by climate change is expected to exacerbate nutrient loading in the region, and, at the same time, agricultural adaptation to changing conditions is also expected to affect loading through shifting amounts and timing of fertilization. Quantifying these future effects and their interactions necessitates modeling both the human and natural processes as a coupled system, by pairing land use and agricultural management with hydrologic modeling. At the same time, compounding uncertainties arising from the complex interactions in both systems significantly limit our predictive understanding of the region's impacts.   This study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed for simulating the impact of various farmer decisions on watershed functions in Western Lake Erie watersheds, and an under-development agent-based model (ABM) for agricultural management decisions. The aim of this study is to use global sensitivity analysis on the coupled ABM and SWAT models to quantify how uncertainty in both models interactively affects nutrient loading. To do so, we will conduct Sobol sensitivity analysis experiments at different levels of coupling assumptions to quantify how various uncertain factors (e.g., soil moisture and crop choice) and their interactions affect our estimates of nutrient loading. The results of this analysis will allow us to quantify how complex interactions and dependencies between both systems amplify the effect of uncertainties. Insights gained from this study will have broader implications for modeling the adaptive co-evolution of human and natural systems under climate change and can inform effective management of nutrient loading in the Great Lakes Region.       },

  doi          = {10.57931/2281238},

  journal      = {},

  number       = ,

  volume       = ,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Mon Jan 15 04:00:00 UTC 2024},

  month        = {Mon Jan 15 04:00:00 UTC 2024}

}

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.57931/2281238

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