Evaluating SWAT + model uncertainties for human and natural outcomes: Application in a Great Lakes agricultural watershed

Bunyon, Enock; Hadjimichael, Antonia; Son, Kyongho; Chowdhury, Pranab Roy; Deines, Jillian; Hetland, Robert

doi:10.57931/2352241

Title: Evaluating SWAT + model uncertainties for human and natural outcomes: Application in a Great Lakes agricultural watershed

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Abstract

Nutrient exports from agricultural lands in the Great Lakes Region pose significant threats to water quality and ecological health through eutrophication, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms. Climate change and agricultural adaptation practices complicate future nutrient loading due to intensified hydrologic cycles and land use decisions. Our research focuses on evaluating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) plus model parametric uncertainties for human and natural outcomes across different scales. These factors are integral to ensuring a balance between productive agricultural practices and maintaining the health of watershed hydrology. However, uncertainties in modeling such complex interactions pose significant challenges, limiting our ability to precisely determine critical factors that influence crop yield and soil moisture. Our analysis employs Sobol global sensitivity analysis to evaluate first-order, second order, and total-order indices for SWAT crop growth parameter, ensuring comprehensive assessment of individual and interactive effects on model outputs. The objective is to identify the parameters that significantly affect model outputs for crop yield and soil moisture and improve our understanding of their interactions at the basin and hydrological response unit (HRU) scale. Our case study, the Portage River Watershed, which drains into Lake Erie, is chosen to better capture finer scale interactionsmore »« less

Authors:

;

Pennsylvania State University; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Pennsylvania State University
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Publication Date:: Mon May 20 00:00:00 EDT 2024

Research Org.:: MultiSector Dynamics - Living, Intuitive, Value-adding, Environment

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

OSTI Identifier:: 2352241

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.57931/2352241

Citation Formats


                    Bunyon, Enock, Hadjimichael, Antonia, Son, Kyongho, Chowdhury, Pranab Roy, Deines, Jillian, and Hetland, Robert. Evaluating SWAT + model uncertainties for human and natural outcomes: Application in a Great Lakes agricultural watershed.  United States: N. p., 2024. 
        Web.  doi:10.57931/2352241.

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                    Bunyon, Enock, Hadjimichael, Antonia, Son, Kyongho, Chowdhury, Pranab Roy, Deines, Jillian, & Hetland, Robert. Evaluating SWAT + model uncertainties for human and natural outcomes: Application in a Great Lakes agricultural watershed.  United States.  doi:https://doi.org/10.57931/2352241

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                    Bunyon, Enock, Hadjimichael, Antonia, Son, Kyongho, Chowdhury, Pranab Roy, Deines, Jillian, and Hetland, Robert. 2024.  
"Evaluating SWAT + model uncertainties for human and natural outcomes: Application in a Great Lakes agricultural watershed".  United States.  doi:https://doi.org/10.57931/2352241.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/2352241. Pub date:Mon May 20 00:00:00 EDT 2024

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@article{osti_2352241,

  title        = {Evaluating SWAT + model uncertainties for human and natural outcomes: Application in a Great Lakes agricultural watershed},

  author       = {Bunyon, Enock and Hadjimichael, Antonia and Son, Kyongho and Chowdhury, Pranab Roy and Deines, Jillian and Hetland, Robert},

  abstractNote = {Nutrient exports from agricultural lands in the Great Lakes Region pose significant threats to water quality and ecological health through eutrophication, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms. Climate change and agricultural adaptation practices complicate future nutrient loading due to intensified hydrologic cycles and land use decisions. Our research focuses on evaluating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) plus model parametric uncertainties for human and natural outcomes across different scales. These factors are integral to ensuring a balance between productive agricultural practices and maintaining the health of watershed hydrology. However, uncertainties in modeling such complex interactions pose significant challenges, limiting our ability to precisely determine critical factors that influence crop yield and soil moisture.     Our analysis employs Sobol global sensitivity analysis to evaluate first-order, second order, and total-order indices for SWAT crop growth parameter, ensuring comprehensive assessment of individual and interactive effects on model outputs. The objective is to identify the parameters that significantly affect model outputs for crop yield and soil moisture and improve our understanding of their interactions at the basin and hydrological response unit (HRU) scale. Our case study, the Portage River Watershed, which drains into Lake Erie, is chosen to better capture finer scale interactions crucial for predicting nutrient loading under future climate scenarios. This foundational work is aimed at setting the stage for the future development of an agent-based model (ABM). The ABM model would incorporate SWAT outputs to dynamically simulate decision-making processes.  },

  doi          = {10.57931/2352241},

  journal      = {},

  number       = ,

  volume       = ,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Mon May 20 00:00:00 EDT 2024},

  month        = {Mon May 20 00:00:00 EDT 2024}

}

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.57931/2352241

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