Utility service area urban development forecasting assessment

Technical Report · Thu Jul 01 04:00:00 EDT 1976

OSTI ID:7304315

Arnold, R K; Levy, S

The legislative act establishing the California Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission (ERCDC) requires that ''every electric utility in the state shall prepare and transmit to the commission within one year after the effective date of this division, and every two years thereafter, a report specifying 5-, 10-, and 20-year forecasts or assessments of loads and resources for its service area.'' As part of the biennial forecasts of loads and resources each electric utility was required to include ''a description of projected population growth, urban development, industrial expansion, and other growth factors influencing increased demand for electric energy and the bases for such projections.'' Five major electric utilities in California submitted first biennial forecasts of loads and resources; this report is essentially an initial evaluation of these five forecasts and accompanying reports. Findings and conclusions of the work are set forth in this report. An overall summary is presented first. Forecasts of urban development/socioeconomic variables for the service areas prepared by governmental agencies and other nongovernmental institutions are reviewed. Requirements for making inferences about energy demand forecasts from information about urban development variables are discussed. The utilities' urban development forecasts and the method used by the utilities for relating forecasts of urban development/socio-economic variables to electric energy demand are reviewed. Preliminary numerical calculations relating the utilities' urban development forecasts and electric energy demand forecasts, prepared for discussion with the Commission staff, are presented in Appendix A.

• Research Organization: Center for Continuing Study of California Economy, Palo Alto (USA)
• OSTI ID: 7304315
• Report Number(s): NP-21851
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
296000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320000 -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization
CALIFORNIA
CORRELATIONS
DEMAND FACTORS
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY DEMAND
EVALUATION
FORECASTING
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
INDUSTRY
LEGISLATION
LOAD MANAGEMENT
MANAGEMENT
NORTH AMERICA
POPULATION DYNAMICS
POWER
POWER DEMAND
PUBLIC UTILITIES
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
URBAN AREAS
USA
VARIATIONS
WESTERN REGION