Independent staff energy-demand forecast for consideration in the proceedings on the Third Biennial Report. [For period 1980-2000]

Technical Report · Tue Jun 03 04:00:00 EDT 1980

OSTI ID:5161835

Every two years the state's major electric utilities submit their forecasts of electricity demand and facility plans to the Commission. This report presents the Energy Commission staff's independent forecast of the potential for future growth in demand for electricity and natural gas as a prelude to preparation of the third Biennial Report (BR III). It concludes that statewide growth in electricity demand from a base year of 1978 to the year 2000 will be 1.75% per year for sales and 1.64% per year for peak. Electricity demand is expected to be as high as forecast in the Commission's second Biennial Report through the 1980's, but then tail off slightly in the last decade of the century. Natural gas demand is forecast to grow very slowly, rising annually at 0.5% from 1979-1985 and 0.52% from 1979-2000. The differences between the new staff forecast and the adopted forecast are more pronounced than they are for electricity. The new forecast is 424 MMCF/day (9.7%) below the adopted forecast by 2000. The difference is largely due to the higher prices now expected for natural gas. This report contains the staff's most recent assessment of future energy demand, a comparison of the staff's new forecasts and adopted BR II forecasts, and brief description of the changes in staff's methods since BR II, including sensitivity cases and a discussion of major assumptions.

• Research Organization: California Energy Commission, Sacramento (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5161835
• Report Number(s): P-102-80-010
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
296000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
CALIFORNIA
DEMAND
DEMAND FACTORS
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
NATURAL GAS
NORTH AMERICA
POWER DEMAND
USA
WESTERN REGION