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U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Methodology for California electric energy forecasting report. Part I

Technical Report ·
OSTI ID:7108203

A methodology is specified for developing a forecasting and analysis system for power demand and supply. The methodology is broadly stated as an application of the scientific method for systematically developing forecasting procedures. The intent is to develop a forecasting methodology which can be subjected to the scrutiny necessary for interested parties to understand the resultant forecast. The methodology also provides a systematic approach to analyzing forecasting systems. To satisfy the immediate requirements of the ERCDC and the electric utilities for a forecasting procedure, a specific California energy/economic model design is developed. The design has three central models: a demand model, a supply model and a service area economic model. The demand model is an econometric model of the sectoral demands for electricity as functions of the prices of electricity and natural gas and economic and demographic variables. The supply model is an optimization procedure to find the least-cost method of supplying electricity. The economic model is a regional econometric model of the service area economy. A detailed work plan for implementation by the California electric utilities and the ERCDC is then presented.

Research Organization:
California Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission, Sacramento (USA)
OSTI ID:
7108203
Report Number(s):
NP-21889/1
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English