Short-term petroleum supply and demand forecasting: an applied approach

Journal Article · · J. Energy Dev.; (United States)

OSTI ID:7231102

Alt, C B; Bopp, A; Lady, G

A short-term forecasting model was developed by the Federal Energy Administration to assess six-month petroleum supplies and conservation potential and to forecast the impact that deregulation of oil prices would have on future supply and demand. Computers were used in an automated analysis system to analyze economic relationships and assess alternative scenarios. The system provides accurate, flexible, and rapid forecasts of value to policy makers, who need to be able to evaluate a large number of options in a short time. Existing models were not useful because they were designed to simulate long-term equilibrium properties of the energy market. The short-term system introduces weather and seasonal factors, supply disruptions, availability of alternate fuels, and current demand. The goal of the short-term model, to minimize the impact of shortfalls, followed the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Details of the model's evolution are included in the article. (DCK)

• Research Organization: Federal Energy Administration, Washington, DC
• OSTI ID: 7231102
• Journal Information: J. Energy Dev.; (United States), Journal Name: J. Energy Dev.; (United States) Vol. 2:1; ISSN JENDD
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700 -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
021000 -- Petroleum-- Legislation & Regulations
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
293000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Policy
Legislation
& Regulation
294002* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
ALLOCATIONS
CHARGES
CLIMATES
DECISION MAKING
ECONOMICS
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY POLICY
ENERGY SHORTAGES
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
INFORMATION
PETROLEUM
USES