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National petroleum product supply and demand, October 1974--1975

Technical Report ·
OSTI ID:6810845
The current supply and demand forecast for eight petroleum products for October, November, and December 1974, and for 1975 by quarter is presented. A number of factors such as weather and potential shortages in other fuels affect the rate of demand in these periods. In order to account for a range of contingencies, two demand scenarios were prepared and used in FEA's short-term petroleum product supply and demand forecasting simulation. Petroleum product demand is based on econometric estimates of the relationship between consumption demand and important macroeconomic variables. A base case demand scenario is presented to estimate adjustments for the effect of higher prices and adjustments to account for increases in demand due to expected natural gas curtailments. The high demand option includes two adjustments to base case demand. All product demands were incremented 5 percent during the fourth quarter 1974 and first and fourth quarters 1975 to account for high demand contingencies such as an especially cold winter. In addition the demand for distillate and residual fuel oils were revised further upwards in 1974 and in the first quarter 1975 to account for the impact of coal shortages should a coal strike occur. Estimates of product demand and product availability are compared. Of the various sources of supply (regional domestic production, inventory drawdown, interregional transfers, and imports), the particular supply allocation selected by the forecasting procedure is such that domestic product production is maintained at a high level, and interregional, interproduct, and intertemporal shortfalls (if any) are minimized.
Research Organization:
Federal Energy Administration, Washington, D.C. (USA)
OSTI ID:
6810845
Report Number(s):
FEA/B-75/190; FEA-EATR-74-5
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
021000* -- Petroleum-- Legislation & Regulations
DEMAND FACTORS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
FORECASTING
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
US FEA
US ORGANIZATIONS