Short-term energy outlook

Technical Report · Fri Feb 02 04:00:00 EST 1990

OSTI ID:6671097

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) quarterly forecasts of short-term energy supply, demand, and prices are revised in January, April, July, and October for publication in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes previous forecast errors, compares recent projections by other forecasters, and discusses current topics of the short-term energy markets (see Short-Term Energy Outlook: Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-2020). The principal users of the Outlook are managers and energy analysts in private industry and government. The projections in this volume extend through the fourth quarter of 1991. The forecasts are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is driven principally by the following sets of assumptions or inputs: forecasts of key macroeconomic variables, a particular set of world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic forecasts are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill. EIA's Oil Market Simulation Model is used to project world oil prices. (The EIA models are available on computer tape and diskette from the National Technical Information Service.) The three featured projections for petroleum supply and demand are based on low, middle, and high economic growth assumptions coupled with high, middle, and low crude oil price trajectories, respectively, and various weather scenarios. The extreme weather cases are designed to replicate, quarter by quarter, the most severe weather conditions witnessed since 1975. The discussion and tables in this volume refer primarily to the middle, or base case, scenario and, unless otherwise noted, to the domestic situation. Table 7 summarizes the petroleum sensitivity cases and indicates the estimated effect of price, macroeconomic conditions, and weather on petroleum demand. 19 refs., 18 figs., 17 tabs.

• Research Organization: USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (USA). Office of Energy Markets and End Use
• Sponsoring Organization: DOE/MA
• OSTI ID: 6671097
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0202(90/1Q); ON: DE90016013
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290400 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Resources
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
293000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Policy
Legislation
& Regulation
294000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Fossil Fuels
296000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
298000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Consumption & Utilization
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
COAL
COMPILED DATA
DATA
DECISION MAKING
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY ANALYSIS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUCTUATIONS
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL CONSUMPTION
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
GLOBAL ASPECTS
INFORMATION
MATERIALS
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NATURAL GAS
NUMERICAL DATA
PETROLEUM
POWER
PRICES
SALES
SEASONS
STABILITY
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
US DOE
US ORGANIZATIONS
VARIATIONS