Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections

Technical Report · Sun Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 1989

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5427327· OSTI ID:5427327

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) quarterly forecasts of short-term energy supply, demand, and prices are revised in January, April, July, and October for publication in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes previous forecast errors, compares recent projections by other forecasters, and discusses current topics of the short-term energy markets (see Short-Term Energy Outlook: Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202). The principal users of the Outlook are managers and energy analysts in private industry and government. The projections in this volume extend through the fourth quarter of 1990. The forecasts are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model uses two principal driving variables: a macroeconomic forecast and world oil price assumptions. Macroeconomic forecasts produced by Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic forecast. EIA's Oil Market Simulation Model is used to project world oil prices. (The EIA models are available on computer tape and diskette from the National Technical Information Service.) The three featured projections for petroleum supply and demand are based on low, middle, and high economic growth assumptions coupled, respectively, with high, middle, and low crude oil price trajectories. The discussion and tables in this volume refer primarily to the middle, or base case, scenario and, unless otherwise noted, to the domestic situation. Table 7 summarizes the petroleum sensitivity cases and indicates the separate contributions to the alternative cases of price, macroeconomic conditions, and weather.

• Research Organization: USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (USA). Office of Energy Markets and End Use
• Sponsoring Organization: DOE/MA
• OSTI ID: 5427327
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0202(89/4Q); ON: DE90002872
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
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CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
COAL
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
ENERGY ANALYSIS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL CONSUMPTION
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
MATERIALS
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NATURAL GAS
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
PRICES
PUBLIC UTILITIES
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
US DOE
US ORGANIZATIONS