Future residential and commercial energy demand in the Northeast

Technical Report · Mon Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 1976

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/7227109· OSTI ID:7227109

Lee, J

In 1972 the Northeast consumed 5.02 quadrillion Btu's (quads) or 44 percent of its energy use in the residential and commercial sectors. Of this total, about two-thirds (3.30 quads) was consumed in residential households and the balance (1.72 quads) in commercial buildings. By end use, space heating is dominant in both sectors, accounting for about 71 percent of the energy used in the residential sector and 76 percent in the commercial sector. Based on existing demographic projections and considering different levels of change in technology, government policy, consumer behavior, and related factors, three alternative energy consumption patterns were constructed for 1985 and 2000. The Base Case projections, which assume a continuation of the consumption patterns that have developed since the ''energy crisis'' of 1973-74, indicate a total residential energy use that remains roughly at the 1972 level until 1985. This consumption is projected to increase at an annually compounded growth rate of 0.6 percent from 1985 to 2000. The commercial energy demand is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.7 percent between 1972 and 1985 and 4.1 percent between 1985 and 2000. The conservation scenarios indicate that there is a tremendous potential for energy conservation in the two sectors. Universal application of technology that is currently available at reasonable cost and slight alterations of life style would reduce the average energy growth in the combined residential and commercial sectors from an annual rate of 1.7 percent to almost zero growth between 1972 and 2000. A more severe conservation case which assumed direct governmental intervention, maximum utilization of current technology, and some public sacrifice of convenience and changes in lifestyle could reduce energy consumption in 2000 to about the 1972 level.

• Research Organization: Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: EY-76-C-02-0016
• OSTI ID: 7227109
• Report Number(s): BNL-50552
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
291000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Conservation
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320101 -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Residential Buildings-- (-1987)
320104 -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Commercial & Industrial Buildings-- (-1987)
BEHAVIOR
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
ECONOMICS
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
FORECASTING
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
HEATING
NORTH AMERICA
PUBLIC RELATIONS
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
SOCIOLOGY
SPACE HEATING
USA