Annual Energy Review 1999
- USDOE Energy Information Administration (EIA), Washington, DC (United States)
A generation ago the Ford Foundation convened a group of experts to explore and assess the Nation’s energy future, and published their conclusions in A Time To Choose: America’s Energy Future (Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1974). The Energy Policy Project developed scenarios of U.S. potential energy use in 1985 and 2000. Now, with 1985 well behind us and 2000 nearly on the record books, it may be of interest to take a look back to see what actually happened and consider what it means for our future. The study group sketched three primary scenarios with differing assumptions about the growth of energy use. The Historical Growth scenario assumed that U.S. energy consumption would continue to expand by 3.4 percent per year, the average rate from 1950 to 1970. This scenario assumed no intentional efforts to change the pattern of consumption, only efforts to encourage development of our energy supply. The Technical Fix scenario anticipated a “conscious national effort to use energy more efficiently through engineering know-how." The Zero Energy Growth scenario, while not clamping down on the economy or calling for austerity, incorporated the Technical Fix efficiencies plus additional efficiencies. This third path anticipated that economic growth would depend less on energy-intensive industries and more on those that require less energy, i.e., the service sector. In 2000, total energy consumption was projected to be 187 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in the Historical Growth case, 124 quadrillion Btu in the Technical Fix case, and 100 quadrillion Btu in the Zero Energy Growth case. The Annual Energy Review 1999 reports a preliminary total consumption for 1999 of 97 quadrillion Btu (see Table 1.1), and the Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (April 2000) forecasts total energy consumption of 98 quadrillion Btu in 2000. What energy consumption path did the United States actually travel to get from 1974, when the scenarios were drawn, to the end of the century? What happened to the relationship between growth and energy consumption? How did the fuel mix change over this period? What are the effects of energy usage on our environment? What level of consumption will the United States—and the world—record in the Annual Energy Review 2025? We present this edition of the Annual Energy Review to help investigate these important questions and to stimulate and inform our thinking about what the future holds.
- Research Organization:
- USDOE Energy Information Administration (EIA), Washington, DC (United States). Office of Energy Markets and End Use
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Energy Information Administration (EIA)
- OSTI ID:
- 1212303
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/EIA-0384(99)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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