GRI forecast features adequate gas supplies at lower prices

Journal Article · Mon Dec 01 04:00:00 EST 1986 · Pace Synth. Fuels Rep.; (United States)

OSTI ID:6305808

The Gas Research Institute's 1986 Baseline Projection of US Energy Supply and Demand to 2010 has projected oil prices to firm gradually from current low levels. The average US refiner's acquisition cost of crude oil is projected to reach about $20 by 1990, $27 by 2000, and about $40 by 2010 (all in terms of 1985 dollars). Until 1990, the global oil supply situation appears comfortable. After 1990, levels of production from the US and other non-OPEC Free World sources are expected to fall rapidly. By 2000, the Middle Eastern OPEC countries alone will be producing 21 million barrels per day, the amount they produced at the peak of the energy crisis in 1978. In the US, total primary energy consumption will increase from 76.4 quadrillion BTU (quads) in 1985 to 105.1 quads by 2010. After 1990, gas consumption is projected to grow rapidly, reaching almost 19 quads by 2000. This growth is heavily dependent upon increased use of gas to generate electricity. Residential gas consumption is projected to decline gradually as efficiency improvements offset the expected growth in the number of gas-heated homes. The commercial sector represents a potential growth market for gas. Gas consumption is projected to grow from 2.5 quads in 1985 to 3.6 quads in 2010. Beginning in the 1990s, supplemental supplies of a gas which depend upon new initiatives will increasingly be required to meet the projected levels of consumption. The most significant contribution in this time frame will be enhanced production from lower-48 unconventional resources, including low-permeability (tight) sands, Devonian shales, coal-seam methane, and production from watered-out reservoirs. Additional quantities of Canadian imports will also be needed after the year 2000.

• OSTI ID: 6305808
• Journal Information: Pace Synth. Fuels Rep.; (United States), Journal Name: Pace Synth. Fuels Rep.; (United States) Vol. 23:4; ISSN PSFRD
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700* -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
03 NATURAL GAS
030600 -- Natural Gas-- Economic
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
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294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
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BITUMINOUS MATERIALS
BLACK SHALES
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
CHATTANOOGA FORMATION
COAL DEPOSITS
COAL SEAMS
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
DEMAND
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
GEOLOGIC DEPOSITS
GEOLOGIC FORMATIONS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
IMPORTS
INDUSTRY
MARKET
MATERIALS
MINERAL RESOURCES
NATURAL GAS
NATURAL GAS DEPOSITS
NORTH AMERICA
OIL SHALES
PERMEABILITY
PETROLEUM
POWER GENERATION
PRICES
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
RESOURCES
USA