Decision analysis framework for evaluating CTBT seismic verification options

Technical Report · Mon Sep 01 04:00:00 EDT 1986

OSTI ID:7173040

Judd, B R; Strait, R S; Younker, L W

This report describes a decision analysis framework for evaluating seismic verification options for a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). In addition to providing policy makers with insights into the relative merits of different options, the framework is intended to assist in formulating and evaluating political decisions - such as responses to evidence of violations - and in setting research priorities related to the options. To provide these broad analytical capabilities to decision makers, the framework incorporates a wide variety of issues. These include seismic monitoring capabilities, evasion possibilities, evidence produced by seismic systems, US response to the evidence, the dependence between US and Soviet decision-making, and the relative values of possible outcomes to the US and the Soviet Union. An added benefit of the framework is its potential use to improve communication about these CTBT verification issues among US experts and decision makers. The framework has been implemented on a portable microcomputer to facilitate this communication through demonstration and rapid evaluation of alternative judgments and policy choices. The report presents the framework and its application in four parts. The first part describes the decision analysis framework and the types of analytical results produced. In the second part, the framework is used to evaluate representative seismic verification options. The third part describes the results of sensitivity analyses that determine the relative importance of the uncertainties or subjective judgments that influence the evaluation of the options. The fourth (and final) part summaries conclusions and presents implications of the sample analytical results for further research and for policy-making related to CTBT verification. The fourth section also describes the next steps in the development and use of the decision analysis framework.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-48
• OSTI ID: 7173040
• Report Number(s): UCID-20853; ON: DE87002369
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290600 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Nuclear Energy
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
450300* -- Military Technology
Weaponry
& National Defense-- Nuclear Explosion Detection
ASIA
DECISION MAKING
DETECTION
EASTERN EUROPE
EUROPE
EXPLOSIONS
INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS
NORTH AMERICA
NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
POLITICAL ASPECTS
SEISMIC DETECTION
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
TESTING
TREATIES
UNDERGROUND EXPLOSIONS
USA
USSR
VERIFICATION
WEAPONS