Evaluation framework for Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty seismic verification systems

Technical Report · Mon Apr 01 04:00:00 EST 1985

OSTI ID:5667702

Younker, L; Hannon, J; Springer, D; Al-Ayat, R; Judd, B; Morris, P; Sandling, J

This report describes an analytic framework for evaluating the capabilities of seismic systems for verifying future treaties limiting nuclear weapons tests. The framework, which is based on decision analysis, is intended to assist policy makers in formulating and evaluating political decisions and research alternatives related to seismic verification. An illustrative evaluation is provided for two types of seismic systems, which are part of an in-country Regional Seismic Verification System. The evaluation incorporates a variety of issues, including detection capabilities, evasion possibilities, evidence produced by the systems, US response to the evidence, and relative values of possible outcomes to the US and foreign countries. Methods are provided to quantify the effectiveness of the systems in assuring treaty compliance and deterring violations. The primary advantages of the framework are that it provides a systematic method for examining technical issues, incorporating value and cost tradeoffs, and analyzing alternate judgments. The framework is being refined to incorporate, for example, the role of on-site inspections and information provided by other sources that supplements seismic evidence. Applications of the framework to decisions related to treaty negotiations are being explored.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-48
• OSTI ID: 5667702
• Report Number(s): UCID-20423; ON: DE85013364
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
450202* -- Explosions & Explosives-- Nuclear-- Weaponry-- (-1989)
DETECTION
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
SEISMIC DETECTION
TESTING
TREATIES
WEAPONS