Controlling principles for prior probability assignments in nuclear risk assessment

Journal Article · Wed Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 1986 · Nucl. Sci. Eng.; (United States)

OSTI ID:6957685

Cook, I; Unwin, S D

As performed conventionally, nuclear probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) may be criticized as utilizing inscrutable and unjustifiably ''precise'' quantitative informed judgment or extrapolation from that judgment. To meet this criticism, controlling principles that govern the formulation of probability densities are proposed, given only the informed input that would be required for a simple bounding analysis. These principles are founded upon information theoretic ideas of maximum uncertainty and cover both cases in which there exists a stochastic model of the phenomenon of interest and cases in which these is no such model. In part, the principles are conventional, and such an approach is justified by appealing to certain analogies in accounting practice and judicial decision making. Examples are given. Appropriate employment of these principles is expected to facilitate substantial progress toward PRA scrutability and transparency.

• Research Organization: United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) Culham Lab., Abingdon
• OSTI ID: 6957685
• Journal Information: Nucl. Sci. Eng.; (United States), Journal Name: Nucl. Sci. Eng.; (United States) Vol. 94:2; ISSN NSENA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS
220900* -- Nuclear Reactor Technology-- Reactor Safety
ACCIDENTS
DATA COVARIANCES
DECISION MAKING
EXTRAPOLATION
INFORMATION THEORY
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NUMERICAL SOLUTION
PROBABILITY
REACTOR ACCIDENTS
REACTOR SAFETY
RISK ASSESSMENT
SAFETY
STOCHASTIC PROCESSES