Energy to year 2000: Caltex Corp. takes a long look ahead

Journal Article · Sun May 01 04:00:00 EDT 1977 · World Oil; (United States)

OSTI ID:6946122

Voss, J M

Caltex Petroleum Corp. completed a detailed forecast for world energy use to the end of the century. Optimism that current energy problems can be solved is not among the conclusions drawn. The main conclusions are: (1) The dominance of oil as a primary energy source will not extend far into the next century; (2) 90 million bpd of oil will be needed to balance world demand in the year 2,000, a requirement that will exceed supply; (3) for the next 23 years, the U.S. will be importing about half of its oil needs, increasingly from Arab sources; (4) growth of energy demand will average 3.6% annually for the world, but only 2.7% for the U.S.; (5) use of coal will accelerate sharply in the mid-1980s, when OPEC will be in its strongest position ever; (6) alternate sources do not hold the promise they once did; (7) OPEC controls world production, sets prices, and will continue to do so indefinitely; and (8) by reversing policies that hamper all types of energy development, governments--and particularly the U.S. government--could do much to help solve present and future problems. The Caltex forecast differs from most other forecasts in detailing how a supply-demand balance will be achieved, in specifying key assumptions and problems, and in assessing the role of business.

• OSTI ID: 6946122
• Journal Information: World Oil; (United States), Journal Name: World Oil; (United States) Vol. 184:6; ISSN WOOIA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
COAL
ENERGY
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCE DEVELOPMENT
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
MARKET
OPEC
PETROLEUM
RESOURCE DEPLETION
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
TRADE