International energy situation: outlook to 1985

Book · Sat Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1977

OSTI ID:7078998

In the absence of greatly increased energy conservation, projected world demand for oil will approach productive capacity by the early 1980s and substantially exceed capacity by 1985. In these circumstances, prices will rise sharply to ration available supplies no matter what Saudi Arabia does. This forecast is largely based on (a) an estimate that the USSR will change from an exporter to a substantial importer of oil, and (b) an examination of the supply capabilities of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries. The underlying supply problem will be masked during the next few years because of greatly increased oil production from the North Sea and Alaska. Demand for OPEC oil should stabilize at near current levels through 1979. Then, between 1979 and 1985, increasing world demand and stagnating oil production in the major consuming counries will result in increased reliance on OPEC oil. Data from the major energy-consuming areas (USA, OECD Europe, Japan, and Canada) were used as a baseline for energy demand determinations through 1985. (MCW)

• OSTI ID: 7078998
• Report Number(s): NP-22462
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
ASIA
CANADA
DEMAND FACTORS
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
EUROPE
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
INDUSTRY
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
JAPAN
NORTH AMERICA
OECD
OPEC
PETROLEUM
PETROLEUM INDUSTRY
USA