Outlook for world oil into the 21st Century with emphasis on the period to 1990. Final report. [Two periods: 1976--1990 and 1990--2005]

Technical Report · Mon May 01 04:00:00 EDT 1978

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/6776346· OSTI ID:6776346

Lichtblau, J. H.; Frank, H. J.

A forecast is presented of oil supply and demand in the non-Communist world for two periods: 1976 to 1990 and 1990 to 2005. Oil is treated as the energy supply of last resort, the balancing item, with special emphasis on oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Energy demand, based on forecast economic growths and energy/economic growth relationships is projected. This demand is assumed to be met to the maximum feasible extent from non-oil energy supplies (coal, gas, nuclear power, hydro and geothermal power, and other sources). The resultant total oil demand is then met first from non-OPEC oil supplies, in order to test the demand for and adequacy of OPEC oil supplies under different energy demand scenarios. The findings are that a gradual transition to non-oil sources of energy over the next 25 to 30 years is more likely than an extended oil shortage of crisis proportions.

• Research Organization: Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, Inc., New York (USA)
• OSTI ID: 6776346
• Report Number(s): EPRI-EA-745
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020000* -- Petroleum
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
OPEC
PETROLEUM