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Fitting the Armitage-Doll model to radiation-exposed cohorts and implications for population cancer risks

Journal Article · · Radiation Research; (United States)
DOI:https://doi.org/10.2307/3578528· OSTI ID:6944012
; ; ;  [1]
  1. Berkeley Nuclear Laboratories, Glos (United Kingdom)
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The Armitage-Doll model of carcinogenesis is fitted to Japanese bomb survivors with the DS86 dosimetry and to three other radiation-exposed cohorts. The model is found to provide an adequate description of solid cancer incidence and also, to a lesser extent, of that of leukemia as a function of radiation dose when up to two radiation-affected stages are assumed. For non-leukemias the optimal model is one in which there are two radiation-affected stages separated by two additional stages. In the case of leukemia one radiation-affected stage or two adjacent stages provide suitable fits. There appear to be significant differences between the optimal models fitted to each cohort, although there is no heterogeneity within the Japanese data set by sex, by cancer type, or by age at exposure. Low-dose and low-dose-rate population risks for a population having the cancer and overall mortality rates of the current UK population are calculated on the basis of the optimal models fitted to the Japanese data to be about 8.3 x 10(-2) excess cancer deaths person-1 Sv-1, 10.1 x 10(-2) radiation-induced cancer deaths person-1 Sv-1, or 1.40 years of life lost person-1 Sv-1. Risks for a population having the mortality rates of the current Japanese population are about 6.5 x 10(-2) excess cancer deaths person-1 Sv-1, 7.8 x 10(-2) radiation-induced cancer deaths person-1 Sv-1, or 0.89 years of life lost person-1 Sv-1. It is a feature of the Armitage-Doll model, and other multistage models of carcinogenesis, that if radiation acts at more than one stage then (inverse) dose-rate effects may arise as a result of interactions between the effects of a protracted dose at the various radiation-affected stages. However, it is shown in this paper that these three measures of cancer risk in general display fairly slight dependence on administered dose in the range 0.001 to 1.0 Sv and on the length of the time over which the dose is administered in the range 1 to 100 years.

OSTI ID:
6944012
Journal Information:
Radiation Research; (United States), Journal Name: Radiation Research; (United States) Vol. 132:2; ISSN 0033-7587; ISSN RAREAE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Related Subjects

560101* -- Biomedical Sciences
Applied Studies-- Radiation Effects-- Dosimetry & Monitoring-- (1992-)
560151 -- Radiation Effects on Animals-- Man
61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY
63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTANT EFFECTS ON LIVING ORGS. AND BIOL. MAT.
A-BOMB SURVIVORS
ASIA
BODY
CARCINOGENESIS
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
DISEASES
DOSE RATES
DOSES
DOSIMETRY
HAZARDS
HEALTH HAZARDS
HUMAN POPULATIONS
IMMUNE SYSTEM DISEASES
JAPAN
LEUKEMIA
LYMPHATIC SYSTEM
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MORTALITY
NEOPLASMS
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
ORGANS
PATHOGENESIS
POPULATIONS
RADIATION DOSES
RADIATION HAZARDS
STATISTICAL MODELS
THYMUS
WEAPONS