Russian roulette. [Problem of USSR production offsetting depletion]

Journal Article · Mon Oct 15 04:00:00 EDT 1979 · Forbes; (United States)

OSTI ID:6793292

The world's largest producer of crude oil is the Soviet Union, lifting about 11.6 million barrels per day (bpd). Next is Saudi Arabia at about 9.5 million bpd, followed by the US at 8.5 million bpd. What if the Soviet Union should, like the US before it, cross over from a net exporter to net importer of oil. Since 1977 the US Central Intelligence Agency has been warning of just such a crossover. For just about as long, analysts within the US oil industry have been dismissing the CIA's warnings as unduly alarmist. This year's numbers - reported by the Soviets themselves - tend to confirm the CIA's case. The heart of the problem is the Soviet Union's enormous production rate, 11.6 million bpd and headed for 12 million to 13 million. Producing these oceanic amounts depletes reservoirs fast. As old ones decline, they must be offset with new finds. The current five-year plan calls for a depletion offset of 7.8 million bpd. They must bring in new production not much less than the US' total annual production just to stay even. Think of it as two Irans. A depletion offset that big and growing, the CIA believes, will become unachievable.

• OSTI ID: 6793292
• Journal Information: Forbes; (United States), Journal Name: Forbes; (United States) Vol. 124:8; ISSN FORBA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020300 -- Petroleum-- Drilling & Production
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
294002* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
ASIA
EASTERN EUROPE
ENERGY SOURCES
EUROPE
EXPLORATION
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
IMPORTS
PETROLEUM
PRODUCTION
RESOURCE DEPLETION
USSR