Soviet oil situation: an evaluation of CIA analyses of Soviet oil production

Book · Sun Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1978

OSTI ID:6352116

The CIA's two unclassified studies, The International Energy Situation and Prospects for Soviet Oil Production, have been generally well received, but both surprise and disbelief have been expressed over the CIA estimate that the ''Soviet Union and Eastern Europe will require a minimum of 3.5 million barrels per day of imported oil by 1985. At worst, slumping production could lead to import requirements as large as 4.5 million barrels per day.'' CIA analysts have said that if they could rewrite that particular study they would definitely change that sentence. It was meant to express the Agency's belief that unless the Soviet Union alters its energy consumption pattern, significantly increases its conservation practices, or greatly reduces economic growth and the oil consumption traditionally correlated with that growth, there will be shortage of 3.5 to 4.5 million barrels per day of oil by 1985; but they do not beileve the Soviet Union will import oil at that magnitude.

• OSTI ID: 6352116
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
294002* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
CONSUMPTION RATES
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
EUROPE
EVALUATION
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
IMPORTS
INDUSTRY
NORTH AMERICA
PETROLEUM
PETROLEUM INDUSTRY
PRODUCTION
RECOMMENDATIONS
USA
USSR