Energy demand in non-OECD countries: oil demand

Technical Report · Sat Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1983

OSTI ID:6692447

Lee, J; Mubayi, V; Anandalingam, G

A simple model based on income and price elasticities was constructed to project demand for oil in the non-OECD countries (OPEC and non-OPEC) using a function of the growth rates of per capita GNP and the world price of oil. Income and price elasticities were estimated using three different models, A, B, and C, one of which assumed lagged adjustments to price changes and two of which did not. Model A used GNP estimated in U.S. constant dollars and the world price of oil. The income elasticities were very high and most of the price elasticities were insignificantly different from zero at the 90% confidence level. This lead us to the conclusion that the world price of oil does not adequately represent the oil price faced by domestic consumers in most developing countries and is not a useful parameter in most non-OECD countries for estimating price elasticities. Model B and Model C (with lagged adjustment) used GNP and oil prices estimated in domestic currencies. Both these models give more reasonable income and price elasticities. The more reliable of these estimates were used for projecting oil demand.

• Research Organization: Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC02-76CH00016
• OSTI ID: 6692447
• Report Number(s): BNL-33905; ON: DE84015717
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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