National gas survey. Preliminary draft. Vol. 1. Chapter 7. Future gas demand
FPC's examination of the concept of gas demand and current forecasting techniques indicates that a combination of econometric and survey methods would be the most desirable approach for future analysis. Survey and econometric forecasts could be made separately and their results compared; or the econometric forecast could be made first, followed by a survey of the gas marketing experts to account and adjust for factors not adequately portrayed by the econometric study, such as implications of legislative, regulatory, and technical developments. No projection will be exact because of the complexity of the factors affecting gas demand: prices and general availability of gas and competitive or alternate fuels, population, personal income, desired personal lifestyle, general level of economic activity, geographic location, etc. In addition, recent developments, such as demand exceeding supply and establishment of priority of services, have contributed to reducing the question of new demand to a purely academic level. A projection incorporating different assumptions on price and other contingencies, including developments in the fuel area, should be developed to estimate the volume of unsatisfied demand. The FPC and other agencies are continuing their efforts to develop appropriately refined gas forecasting techniques, but until these are available the Future Requirements Committee's forecast (survey technique) should beconsidered as the indicator for the outlook for future gas demand. The latest FPC forecast listed total gas requirements as 28 Tcf in 1975, 33.4 Tcf in 1980, 38.4 in 1985, and 45.3 in 1990. Assumptions were that (1) there will be adequate gas supply for all estimated requirements for all periods covered, (2) the 1970 price relationship of gas to competing fuels will remain essentially the same, (3) there will be no major calamities during the forecast period, and (4) technological development will be of an evolutionary nature.
- OSTI ID:
- 6567529
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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