Future of natural gas: economic myths, regulatory realities

Technical Report · Mon Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1976

OSTI ID:6837390

Forecasts are presented of conventional gas supplies (excluding Alaskan) past the year 2000 as well as the potential for supplementary supplies from Alaskan gas, LNG, and coal gasification during the same period. The costs for these supplies are calculated, in constant dollars, for 1985 and 2000 using estimated quantities of new gas and rollover gas under existing FPC Opinions for these years. The prices of alternate fuels are also estimated, using the price rollup under EPCA for crude and the expiration of contracts for coal. Btu price equivalency at the wellhead is assumed for oil and gas in 2000, still in constant 1975 dollars. It is concluded that declining conventional supplies will force reductions in high-priority loads around 1990 with the concomitant elimination of all industrial (non-process) interstate loads. Supplementary supplies can pick up a large part of the decline and permit, virtually indefinitely, interstate market service at between 12 and 14 Tcf/year (1975 equalled 12.1 Tcf). In 1985, with conventional supplies only, the cost of gas, including a surcharge for underutilization of capacity, will be only slightly less than the cost with rolled-in supplemental supplies. In the year 2000, supplementary supplies with conventional supplies will cost less than conventional supplies alone. Gas prices will rise faster than alternate fuel prices making gas a premium fuel for most industrial uses. Gas prices to residential consumers will remain less than fuel oil No. 2 nearly to the year 2000. Electricity will continue to be far more expensive for space heating.

• Research Organization: Federal Power Commission, Washington, D.C. (USA). Bureau of Natural Gas
• OSTI ID: 6837390
• Report Number(s): NP-23178
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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CHARGES
COAL GAS
ENERGY SOURCES
FEDERAL POWER COMMISSION
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
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LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS
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NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY
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US ORGANIZATIONS