Commercial-energy-use model for the ten US Federal regions. [Floor-space-demand forecast to 1995]
Development of a regional forecasting tool for energy demand in the commercial sector of the US is described. Data bases for each of the ten Federal regions are developed as input to the ORNL commercial energy-demand model to evaluate conservation policies, new technologies, and fuel-price strategies on a regional basis from 1970 to 2000. Commercial-floor-space econometric models for each of ten commercial building types in each of the ten Federal regions are estimated to forecast the growth of energy using capital on a regional basis. In addition, regional energy-use indices (Btu/ft/sup 2/) are calculated using revised commercial energy-use and floor-space estimates. Comparisons are made between the commercial-floor-space forecasts of the regional models and the national commercial-energy-use model. In addition, validation of the forecasting accuracy of the regional models is made for a historical period. All regions show fuel switching away from fuel oil and natural gas to electricity. Regions 4, 6, and 10 (Southeastern, Southwestern, and Lower Western States) show the largest growth rates of projected primary energy consumption for the ten Federal regions with the Great Lakes states the lowest.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-26
- OSTI ID:
- 6543487
- Report Number(s):
- ORNL/CON-40
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
290100 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Analysis & Modeling
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
BUILDINGS
COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
DEMAND
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUEL OILS
FUEL SUBSTITUTION
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
LIQUID FUELS
NATURAL GAS
NORTH AMERICA
OILS
ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
OTHER ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
POWER
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
TESTING
USA
VALIDATION