Econometric model for the disaggregation of state-level electricity demand forecasts to the service area

Technical Report · Fri Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 1980

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5681248· OSTI ID:5681248

Tepel, Richard C. ^[1]; Alvic, Donald R. ^[1]; Jay, Jonathan M. ^[1]; Thorne, Alexander D. ^[1]

---

1. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

An econometric model for the disaggregation of state-level electricity demand forecasts to the service area developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is presented. Based on demand models for the service area and the remainder of the state in which it is located, a model which explains the service area's share of the state's demand is developed and estimated for six service areas using econometric techniques. The share is then forecasted and combined with the forecasts for state demand presented in Regional Econometric Model for Forecasting Electricity Demand by Sector and by State (ORNL/NUREG-49) to obtain service-area forecasts to 1990. Results indicate that some service areas differ dramatically from the state and the region of which they are a part. The historic difference in the growth rate of electricity demand is reflected in the forecasted future growth rates generated by the model. This implies that the application of regional or state growth rates to some particular service areas may be inappropriate. The major causes of the difference between the areas seem to be differences in the responsiveness and growth of prices, income, population, and industrial activity.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE; USNRC
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-26
• OSTI ID: 5681248
• Report Number(s): ORNL/NUREG/TM--359; NUREG/CR-1147
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290100 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Analysis & Modeling
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
DATA
DATA COMPILATION
DATA FORMS
DEMAND FACTORS
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
EVALUATED DATA
FORECASTING
GRAPHS
INCOME
INDUSTRY
INFORMATION
MAPS
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NORTH AMERICA
NUMERICAL DATA
ORNL
POPULATION DYNAMICS
POWER
POWER DEMAND
PRICES
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
TABLES
US AEC
US DOE
US ERDA
US ORGANIZATIONS
USA