Regional econometric model for forecasting electricity demand by sector and by state

Technical Report · Sun Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 1978

OSTI ID:5610602

Chern, W S; Just, R E; Holcomb, B D; Nguyen, H D

A regional electricity demand forecasting model developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRS) is presented. Major topics include (1) the methodology used to forecast electricity demand, (2) the econometric models estimated for the nine census regions, and (3) forecasts of electricity demand by sector for 48 states for the years 1975 to 1990. The model's important features are detailed. Forecasting results are given for three scenarios - base case, high-price case, and low-price case. Forecasts of electricity demand and price for 1980, 1985, and 1990 are provided. The results show that electricity demand will continue to grow in all sectors for all states. However, the rates of growth will be considerably lower than those observed in the 1950s and 1960s. Furthermore, forecasted electricity demands and prices are sensitive to fuel prices and costs of generation, transmission, and distribution. These sensitivities apply in all three sectors and in all states.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-26
• OSTI ID: 5610602
• Report Number(s): NUREG/CR-0250; ORNL/NUREG-49
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320000* -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
FORECASTING
GROWTH
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
POWER
POWER DEMAND
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
TESTING
VALIDATION