Model documentation: Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System Demand Model

Technical Report · Tue Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 1983

OSTI ID:6353043

Rodekohr, M E

This report documents the demand models used by the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) to produce the energy-demand forecasts published in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). The STIFS demand model is a set of individual energy product demand models which, when combined with electric utility fuel use and natural gas supply and demand estimates, produces projections of demand for total energy and individual energy products. The geographical area of consideration is the United States, defined as the 50 States excluding the territories and islands. The model forecasts on a monthly basis but only quarterly averages are published. All forecasts are made six quarters into the future. The structure of the individual models is summarized, beginning with the energy price models which are used to produce forecasts of the various retail energy prices used in the demand models. Most of these models are econometric, estimated by ordinary least squares for the Cochrane-Orcutt procedure which corrects for autocorrelation. Since all of the models are deterministic, no solution algorithm is used.

• Research Organization: USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC. Office of Energy Markets and End Use
• OSTI ID: 6353043
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0391; ON: DE83011479
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290100 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Analysis & Modeling
294000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Fossil Fuels
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
COAL
DEMAND
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
GASOLINE
JET ENGINE FUELS
LIQUEFIED GASES
LIQUEFIED PETROLEUM GASES
LIQUID FUELS
LIQUIDS
MATERIALS
NATURAL GAS
NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS
NORTH AMERICA
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
PRICES
PUBLIC UTILITIES
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
USA