Projection of urban-household automobile holdings and new car purchases by type

Conference · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1982

OSTI ID:6388303

Saricks, C; Vyas, A D; Bunch, J A

A method to forecast personal vehicle holdings and sales by household segment for the TAPCUT project is described and its usage and results documented. The method uses an incremental logit form of the Lave-Train vehicle choice model to estimate changes in the distribution of vehicle size classes and technologies for each of 576 household types disaggregated from national urban total according to five demographic parameters. Data for baseline vehicle distribution and household segment totals were obtained from the 1977 Nationwide Personal Transportation survey. Holdings distributions for each TAPCUT scenario/policy projection year eta were incremented on sales distributions for year eta-10. Shares for three vehicle size classes and four vehicle technologies (Otto, diesel, electric, advanced heat engine) were estimated at ten-year intervals to year 2000. These results are presented for one of the three TAPCUT prototype cities and compared to other published forecasts. In general, TAPCUT's results project lower diesel penetration and higher small car shares than comparable year 2000 forecasts.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Lab., IL (USA); Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-31109-ENG-38
• OSTI ID: 6388303
• Report Number(s): CONF-820128-3; ON: DE83007605
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
298000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Consumption & Utilization
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320203* -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Transportation-- Land & Roadway
AUTOMOBILES
DIESEL ENGINES
ELECTRIC-POWERED VEHICLES
ENGINES
FORECASTING
HEAT ENGINES
HOUSEHOLDS
INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES
MARKETING
MARKETING RESEARCH
OTTO CYCLE
THERMODYNAMIC CYCLES
URBAN AREAS
VEHICLES