Transportation energy demand from 1980 to 2010: structure and results of the Transportation Energy and Emissions Modeling System

Conference · Wed Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1986

OSTI ID:5551365

Vyas, A; Millar, M; Patterson, P

As part of ongoing work for the US Department of Energy (DOE), Argonne National Laboratory's Center for Transportation Research develops detailed forecasts of US transportation energy demand, by mode and fuel type. These forecasts are generated by a model system of linked component modules of local personal travel demand, intercity travel demand, and goods movement. The local personal travel component uses an iterative proportional fitting technique to project household characteristics by several demographic variables and an incremental logit model to predict changes in household vehicle holdings. The intercity travel module is a network-based, direct-demand formulation based on utility-maximizing principles. The freight module is driven by econometric forecasts of sectoral output. Mode shares are determined by sampling a series of probability-density functions of shipment attributes and shipper preferences. Major inputs include exogenous economic, demographic, and price assumptions; outputs include long-range modal and submodal forecasts of transportation stock, activity, and energy demand. This paper documents the methodology and presents selected results from the latest run of the model system.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Lab., IL (USA); USDOE Assistant Secretary for Conservation and Renewable Energy, Washington, DC. Office of Transportation Systems
• DOE Contract Number: W-31109-ENG-38
• OSTI ID: 5551365
• Report Number(s): CONF-8606112-3; ON: DE86014495
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320200* -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Transportation
DEMAND
ENERGY DEMAND
FORECASTING
SIMULATION
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS