Forecasts of intercity passenger demand and energy use through 2000

Conference · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1982

OSTI ID:6450027

Kaplan, M P; Vyas, A D; Millar, M; Gur, Y

The development of national travel demand and energy-use forecasts for automobile and common-carrier intercity travel through the year 2000. The forecasts are driven by the POINTS (Passenger Oriented Intercity Network Travel Simulation) model, a model direct-demand model which accounts for competition among modes and destinations. Developed and used to model SMSA-to-SMSA business and nonbusiness travel, POINTS is an improvement over earlier direct demand models because it includes an explicit representation of cities' relative accessibilities and a utility maximizing behavorial multimodal travel function. Within POINTS, pathbuilding algorithms are used to determine city-pair travel times and costs by mode, including intramodal transfer times. Other input data include projections of SMSA population, public and private sector employment, and hotel and other retail receipts. Outputs include forecasts of SMSA-to-SMSA person trips and person-miles of travel by mode. For the national forecasts, these are expanded to represent all intercity travel (trips greater than 100 miles, one way) for two fuel-price cases. Under both cases rising fuel prices, accompanied by substantial reductions in model-energy intensities, result in moderate growth in total intercity passenger travel. Total intercity passenger travel is predicted to grow at approximately one percent per year, slightly fster than population growth, while air travel grows almost twice as fast as population. The net effect of moderate travel growth and substantial reduction in model energy intensities is a reduction of approximately 50 percent in fuel consumption by the intercity passenger travel market.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Lab., IL (USA); Urban Systems, Inc., Oak Park, IL (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-31109-ENG-38
• OSTI ID: 6450027
• Report Number(s): CONF-820128-7; ON: DE83007640
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
298000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Consumption & Utilization
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320200* -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Transportation
ALGORITHMS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
FORECASTING
MATHEMATICAL LOGIC
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
SIMULATION
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
URBAN AREAS