Personal vehicles preferred by urban Americans: household automobile holdings and new car purchases projected to the year 2000

Technical Report · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1982

OSTI ID:5203459

Saricks, C L; Vyas, A D; Bunch, J A

A procedure is described for modeling the choices made in urban American households among personal vehicles on the bases of cost, passenger capacity, and engine technology, and it projects those preferences to the year 1990 and 2000. The results of this disaggregate technique are used by the other predictive research tasks undertaken by Argonne National Laboratory in a project entitled Technology Assessment of Productive Conservation in Urban Transportation (TAPCUT). The vehicle preferences reported here furnish data for the overall TAPCUT objective of forecasting the probable effects of energy conservation policies in transportation. In our projections, vehicles with standard spark-ignition (Otto-cycle) engines continue to dominate automobile holdings and new car purchases in either of two socioeconomic scenarios under any of three settings (an existing policy set and two alternative conservation strategies). From 1990, small cars (seating four or fewer passengers) dominate urban holdings and sales in two of the three TAPCUT energy strategies - the exception being the strategy that emphasizes individual travel - and this holds true with only a minor variation for both socioeconomic scenarios (an optimistic one and a slightly pessimistic one). Advanced-technology vehicles are most successful under the Individual Travel Strategy. It appears that vehicle charateristics are far more significant than demographic descriptors in estimating household vehicle choice using this modeling approach.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Lab., IL (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-31109-ENG-38
• OSTI ID: 5203459
• Report Number(s): ANL/EES-TM-170; ON: DE82014339
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
298000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Consumption & Utilization
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320203* -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Transportation-- Land & Roadway
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS
330300 -- Advanced Propulsion Systems-- Electric-Powered Systems
AUTOMOBILES
COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
DATA
DATA COMPILATION
DECISION MAKING
DEMOGRAPHY
DISTRIBUTION
FORECASTING
FUEL ECONOMY
HOUSEHOLDS
INFORMATION
INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS
INVENTORIES
MARKET
MOTORS
NORTH AMERICA
NUMERICAL DATA
SALES
SIZE
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
USA
VEHICLES
WEIGHT