Development of a dynamic model to evaluate economic recovery following a nuclear attack. Volume 1. Description and simulations. Final report

Technical Report · Sat Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1980

OSTI ID:6265183

Peterson, D W; Silverman, W S; Weil, H B; Willard, S

A highly-robust, dynamic simulation model of the US economy has been constructed to evaluate the likely economic response after various nuclear attacks or other severe disruptions, under various policies and assumptions. The model consists of a large system of nonlinear, recursive, time-difference equations. The solution-interval of the model is adjustable, with a maximum value of three weeks. The model represents the economy in thirteen sectors. Each sector contains a detailed representation of production, distribution, supply constraints, finance, employment, pricing, and wages. Also included are a full input-output representation of the interconnections among the sectors, and the psychological responses of corporate planners, consumers, and the labor force. The model's equations are formulated to remain consistent and realistic for all values of the variables, including the most extreme conditions. Therefore, the model can realistically simulate any degree or time sequence of nuclear attacks, pre-attack surges, mobilization, or policy shifts. Simulation experiments with the model suggest that the economy is highly vulnerable to nuclear attack, and that recovery requires extensive preparation, including psychological readiness, technology maintenance, special financial policies, and (if possible) maintenance of foreign trade. Civil defense policies must be adaptive (contingent on the nature of the damage) and must strive for balance among sectors, rather than maximum survival. This volume includes two appendices. Appendix A defines the aggregation of the model. Appendix B outlines the range of attack scenarios, pre-attack civil defense policies, and post-attack civil defense policies that can be evaluated with the model, including the model variables applicable to implementing those policies.

• Research Organization: Pugh-Roberts Associates, Inc., Cambridge, MA (USA)
• OSTI ID: 6265183
• Report Number(s): FEMA-4341B-Vol.1
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
450202* -- Explosions & Explosives-- Nuclear-- Weaponry-- (-1989)
990500 -- Civilian Defense-- (-1987)
CIVIL DEFENSE
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMIC IMPACT
ECONOMICS
ECONOMY
EXPLOSIONS
NATIONAL DEFENSE
NORTH AMERICA
NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
SIMULATION
USA
WEAPONS