Development of a dynamic model to evaluate the effect of natural-resource policies on recovery following nuclear attack: Volume I. Description and simulations. Final report

Technical Report · Tue Sep 01 04:00:00 EDT 1981

OSTI ID:5334433

Weil, H B; Silverman, W S; Peterson, D W

A dynamic computer simulation model has been developed, which explicitly represents the production, import, and distribution of key groups of natural resources and the effects of many resource-related government policies. This model is a tool for assessing the vulnerability of the US economy to various degrees and types of damage to its natural resource sectors. It can be used to analyze the impacts of resource availability, and of US Government natural resource policies, on the process of post-nuclear-attack economic recovery. The model may be characterized as a dynamic, input-output simulation of the natural resources portion of the US economy. The natural resources portion of the economy is represented as four distinct sectors: (1) metallic durable materials; (2) non-metallic durable materials; (3) energy products; and (4) non-fuel consumable materials. The results of attack scenario and policy tests indicate that recovery following a nuclear attack requires reestablishing and maintaining dynamic balance among the interdependent sectors of the economy. Under a wide range of attack scenarios, the natural resource sectors will be sources of dangerous imbalances, and will constrain recovery of the overall US economy. Civil Defense policies can reduce these imbalances and thus merit serious consideration.

• Research Organization: Pugh-Roberts Associates, Inc., Cambridge, MA (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5334433
• Report Number(s): NP-2901236; ON: DE82901236
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290100* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Analysis & Modeling
290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
290300 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Environment
Health
& Safety
290400 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Resources
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
990500 -- Civilian Defense-- (-1987)
CIVIL DEFENSE
COMPUTER CODES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMIC IMPACT
ECONOMIC POLICY
ECONOMICS
ECONOMY
EMERGENCY PLANS
ENERGY SUPPLIES
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
EXPLOSIONS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
INDUSTRY
INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
METAL INDUSTRY
NATIONAL DEFENSE
NORTH AMERICA
NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS
PLANNING
PRICES
PRODUCTION
RECYCLING
RESOURCE DEPLETION
RESOURCES
SIMULATION
USA